Oil keeps flowing, but fuel market remains vulnerable
Alternative routes and American escort keep exports moving, while refining and security lag behind.
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Oil exporters in the Gulf region are finding more ways to limit the impact of the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, crude oil supplies have partly recovered, but diesel and other refined products in particular remain scarce and more expensive.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a bottleneck for the global energy market, but the oil trade has not come to a complete standstill. According to Associated Press, tankers are being escorted, pipelines and alternative shipping routes are being used, and cargoes are being transferred outside the strait. This means that part of the Gulf region's exports remains available.
AP reported that US forces have helped with around 2,000 commercial vessel transits and the transport of more than 1 billion barrels of oil in recent months. Analysts told the news agency that an average of at least 6 million barrels per day is being transported via a route on which vessels limit their visibility. That estimate is above 40 per cent of the pre-war level.
The availability of crude oil, however, is not the same as the availability of fuel at the pump. According to the International Energy Agency, exports of diesel and gasoil from the Gulf states averaged 390,000 barrels per day in August. That was slightly more than a quarter of the pre-war level.
The IEA also writes that exports of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas were almost 3.7 million barrels per day lower in August than in February. Refineries in the region are not operating normally everywhere, and routes for finished fuels are harder to secure than routes for crude oil.
Shipping, too, is not yet operating under normal conditions. A current warning from the US maritime authority MARAD describes the risk of attacks and navigation problems in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman as high. US vessels are advised to keep their distance from military craft, coordinate travel plans and avoid high-risk areas where possible.
For European consumers and businesses, the recovery of crude oil flows therefore does not automatically mean that prices will quickly return to their previous level. Insurance, security, detours and limited refining capacity may keep the market for diesel, kerosene and other products under pressure. How long this lasts will depend mainly on the security situation and the political negotiations.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- Some oil exports are continuing despite the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
- According to the IEA, exports of refined products are clearly below the pre-war level.
- The US government is still warning of high security risks for commercial vessels.
Left
Arguments Emphasises that the crisis shows how vulnerable an economy remains when it depends on fossil fuels and military protection of trade routes.
Values The energy transition, affordability for households and reducing geopolitical dependence.
Consequences Wants to accelerate the development of renewable energy, energy saving and public transport, even if this requires additional investment in the short term.
Centre
Arguments Sees a combination of strategic reserves, safe shipping and supplier diversification as necessary in the short term, alongside a gradual energy transition.
Values Security of supply, affordability and workable policy.
Consequences Warns against abrupt measures that would hit industry and consumers harder than necessary, but also against postponing structural sustainability measures.
Right
Arguments Emphasises freedom of navigation, protection of trade routes and sufficient domestic energy and refining capacity as conditions for economic stability.
Values National security, market continuity and competitiveness.
Consequences Wants military protection and fossil-fuel infrastructure to remain available as long as alternatives cannot yet reliably meet demand.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The article distinguishes between crude oil, refined products and security risks. The figures used are linked to their source and period; market effects are presented as expectations.
- confirmed US forces helped with around 2,000 commercial vessel transits and the transport of more than 1 billion barrels of oil. — Associated Press cites a statement by U.S. Central Command for this. source
- confirmed Analysts estimate the alternative oil flow at at least 6 million barrels per day. — AP attributes this to analysts and places the figure in the context of the pre-war level. source
- confirmed Diesel and gasoil exports from the Gulf states averaged 390,000 barrels per day in August. — Figure from the IEA's Oil Market Report. source
- confirmed MARAD describes the security risks in the region as high. — The active maritime warning mentions risks of attacks and navigation problems. source
Editor's note
The scale of alternative oil flows is partly based on analysts' estimates and on IEA figures covering different periods. The impact on Dutch prices was not derived directly from current Dutch pump-price data.Sources
- Gulf nations have found ways to keep oil flowing through the Iran war — Associated Press
- Oil Market Report - September 2026 — International Energy Agency
- Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman — U.S. Maritime Administration