AfD wins, Merz suffers fresh electoral blow
Exit polls point to gains for the AfD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and for Die Linke in Berlin.
The AfD appears to have become the largest party in Sunday’s state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In Berlin, Die Linke is ahead according to exit polls, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU is losing ground in both states.
According to an exit poll by German public broadcaster ARD, the AfD is on about 37 per cent of the vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The SPD, which has governed the state for many years, follows on about 35.5 per cent. The CDU is stuck at around 5.5 per cent, only just above the electoral threshold. The figures are provisional projections, not a final result.
In Berlin, Die Linke is on about 24.5 per cent according to the first projections. The CDU follows on around 20 per cent. The AfD is on about 16 per cent according to the same projections. Berlin’s official election website reported at 20:18 that about half of the electoral districts had been counted; the percentages may therefore still change.
The results are above all another setback for Merz. Earlier this month, his CDU already suffered a heavy defeat in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD became the largest party. On Sunday, Merz called the result a disaster for his party, but said he wanted to continue as chancellor and CDU leader. He linked his government’s reforms to Germany’s economic problems.
The AfD is unlikely to have a straightforward route to power in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The other major parties have ruled out cooperation with it. In both Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, a majority of the SPD, Die Linke and the Greens appears possible, although those parties still need to negotiate and the political balance differs between the states.
The significance of the elections extends beyond the state governments. German states have their own powers in areas including education, policing and parts of tax policy. Through the Bundesrat, states can also influence federal legislation. A shift in power at state level could therefore reduce the room for manoeuvre of the Merz government.
The result provisionally confirms two opposing trends. To the right of the political centre, the AfD is growing, while Die Linke is benefiting in Berlin from discontent over issues including housing and high rents. The coming days will show whether the provisional figures hold, which coalitions are possible and whether fresh debate over Merz’s leadership emerges within the CDU.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The AfD appears set to become the largest party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania according to exit polls.
- Die Linke is provisionally ahead in Berlin.
- The CDU is achieving a historically low result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania according to the exit polls.
- The final results and coalitions were not yet known at 20:21.
Left
Arguments The left will mainly stress that the AfD’s growth must be met with protection for social services, affordable housing and a clear rejection of cooperation with the far right. From this perspective, Die Linke’s success in Berlin may show that voters are also seeking an alternative on the left.
Values Equality, public services, anti-discrimination and democratic resilience.
Consequences From this perspective, a shift to the right could deepen social divisions and further normalise the AfD. Investment in housing and public services could instead restore confidence.
Centre
Arguments The institutional centre will see the result as a signal that voters are dissatisfied with the economy, prices and government, while still holding on to administrative continuity. It will stress coalitions without the AfD and seek feasible reforms with social safeguards.
Values Stability, effective government, the rule of law and compromise.
Consequences A broad coalition could curb further polarisation, but there is a risk that voters will see the cooperation as technocratic or indecisive.
Right
Arguments The right will argue that the AfD’s growth is primarily a protest against migration policy, high burdens and economic stagnation. From this perspective, the CDU must be clearer on security, borders and reforms instead of leaving voters to the AfD.
Values National control, security, economic responsibility and lower burdens.
Consequences A tougher course could win back voters, but could also narrow the political distance from the AfD and make cooperation with other parties more difficult.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
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The key figures and political reactions have been confirmed by NOS, AP and Berlin’s official results service. Where the count was not yet final, this has been stated explicitly.
- confirmed The AfD stood at about 37 per cent in the exit poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. — NOS and AP report the ARD exit poll at about 37 per cent. source
- confirmed The SPD stood at about 35.5 per cent there. — The percentage is mentioned in the exit poll described by NOS and Reuters/AP. source
- confirmed Die Linke stood at about 24.5 per cent in Berlin according to the first projections. — NOS reports this based on exit polls; the official count had not yet been completed. source
- confirmed Berlin’s official service had counted about half of the electoral districts at around 20:18. — The official website listed 2,022 of 4,114 districts as counted. source
- confirmed Merz called the result a disaster and said he wanted to continue. — This is stated in reporting by NOS and AP. source
- confirmed The AfD is unlikely to be able to form a state government easily. — NOS and Reuters report that other major parties are ruling out cooperation. source
Editor's note
The results in this article are based on exit polls and an interim count at around 20:21; coalitions and final percentages had not yet been settled.Sources
More on this in Dutch media
- De Telegraaf — „duitsland afd”
- AD — „duitsland afd”
- de Volkskrant — „duitsland afd”