European services warn of Russian test of NATO
A Czech security chief speaks of months, while Latvia sees no sign of an imminent attack.
European security officials warn that Russia may try to test NATO's cohesion further. Public statements differ: some services speak of a possible short-term scenario, while others see no sign of an imminent attack.
The warnings were described in interviews with The Guardian by three European intelligence chiefs. Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech security service BIS, said Russia could be considering various options, including a limited incursion, a false-flag provocation or a major influence campaign. In his view, such a scenario could develop within months, not years.
Normunds Mežviets, head of Latvia's security service VDD, put it more cautiously. He said there were signs that Moscow might be preparing for more forceful action in Europe, but that his service saw no indications of an immediate attack on a NATO country. In his view, it was unclear whether this concerned concrete plans or a strategy to spread fear and uncertainty.
The head of Sweden's military intelligence service, Thomas Nilsson, also warned of a further intensification of sabotage in Europe. He linked this to possible targets such as railways, the defence industry and infrastructure supporting aid to Ukraine. The officials disclosed no specific intelligence that would allow their assessments to be independently tested.
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said earlier in the Polish parliament that Russia might be preparing drone or missile attacks against European countries. According to Tusk, such attacks could be presented as accidents in order to sow division over whether NATO should respond. His statement was based on information from Polish, Ukrainian and American services, but he too did not make the underlying data public.
NATO did not confirm that a Russian attack was expected in the short term. At a joint press conference on 19 September, the chair of the Military Committee said that Russian drone incidents, airspace violations and hybrid activities were testing the resolve of allies. At the same time, the organisation stressed that the threat was real and that deterrence had to remain credible.
According to The Guardian, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has dismissed earlier reports of Russian plans for an attack on NATO. Russia regularly accuses Western countries of participating in the war through their support for Ukraine, but there is no public evidence that Moscow has now ordered a concrete attack on a NATO country.
The contrast between the statements is journalistically significant. These are risk assessments by security services, not an established event. European governments face a dilemma between preparation and public calm: too little attention may increase vulnerabilities, while excessive certainty or panic, according to Latvian and Estonian officials, may itself fit Russia's influence strategy.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- European security officials disagree about how close possible Russian action may be.
- Poland has warned of possible hybrid attacks involving drones or missiles.
- NATO says that hybrid activities and drone incidents are testing the alliance.
- The underlying intelligence is not public.
Left
Arguments Europe must prevent escalation while also strengthening the resilience of its societies. Warnings should not automatically lead to higher military spending without democratic oversight, diplomatic channels and protection for civilians against disinformation.
Values International law, de-escalation, democratic oversight and the protection of civilians.
Consequences The risk is that a constant alarm tone will reinforce fear and militarisation. The preference is for joint European resilience, diplomacy and targeted support for Ukraine.
Centre
Arguments Governments must prepare for hybrid attacks without pretending that war is inevitable. This requires better protection of critical infrastructure, transparent communication and coordination within NATO and the EU.
Values Precaution, proportionality, institutional cooperation and public calm.
Consequences A balanced approach can reduce vulnerabilities without fuelling panic. The downside is that some measures are costly and uncertainty can never disappear completely.
Right
Arguments Russia is already testing the limits of European countries through sabotage, drones and influence operations. Only credible military deterrence and a clear willingness to defend allies can prevent Moscow from interpreting division as weakness.
Values National security, deterrence, allied solidarity and responsibility.
Consequences The expected gain is a stronger NATO and less room for Russian intimidation. The risk is higher defence spending and escalation that could intensify further through countermeasures.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The text clearly distinguishes between officials' public statements and established facts. The warnings are based on interviews and official statements, while the absence of public evidence of a concrete attack is explicitly noted.
- confirmed The head of the Czech BIS spoke of possible Russian scenarios developing over months, not years. — This appears in The Guardian interview with Michal Koudelka. source
- confirmed The head of Latvia's VDD said he saw no sign of an immediate attack. — The Guardian directly quotes Normunds Mežviets on this. source
- confirmed Donald Tusk warned of possible Russian drone or missile attacks on European countries. — The statement appears in the Polish parliamentary record and on the Polish government's website. source
- confirmed NATO says that Russian drone incidents and hybrid activities are testing the resolve of allies. — This appears in the transcript of the joint NATO press conference on 19 September. source
- confirmed There is no public evidence that Russia has ordered a concrete attack on a NATO country. — The sources consulted report warnings and risk assessments, but no public order or established attack; this is a careful summary of the available information. source
Editor's note
It is certain that several European security officials are warning about Russian hybrid activities and possible escalation. A concrete Russian attack on a NATO country has not been established; the underlying intelligence is not public, and the services differ in their assessment of how close the risk is.Sources
- Baltic spy chiefs warn Moscow is preparing for more decisive action in Europe — The Guardian
- 10. kadencja, 65. posiedzenie, 3. dzień — Sejm van Polen
- Joint Press Conference — NAVO
- Polish prime minister presents security information — Kancelaria Prezesa Rady Ministrów
More on this in Dutch media
- NRC — „rusland navo”
- NU.nl — „rusland navo”
- De Telegraaf — „rusland navo”