Agencies warn of normalisation of far-right ideas
AIVD and NCTV see spread mainly online and warn that acceptance of the ideology could fuel violence.
AIVD and NCTV have once again warned about the normalisation of far-right ideas in the Netherlands. According to the agencies, the spread is mainly taking place online, but it is also affecting demonstrations and public debate.
The warning appears in the June 2026 Terrorist Threat Assessment of the Netherlands (DTN) and in recent briefings by the security services. NCTV writes that the threat from far-right terrorism remains limited and stable, but that far-right networks are active online and are trying to spread and normalise their ideas.
According to NCTV, the Dutch online network consists of several hundred people. Among other things, they share propaganda and information about materials that could be used in attacks. The agency distinguishes between far-right extremism, which does not always directly seek violence, and far-right terrorism, in which violence is central.
The security services point to terms such as ‘population replacement’ and ‘remigration’. According to NCTV, these words can form part of a broader extremist message about the alleged replacement of the white population. AIVD calls the population replacement theory factually incorrect and says that far-right groups often present their message in a more moderate form to make it more socially acceptable.
The warning does not concern everyone who is critical of migration or asylum policy. NCTV writes that demonstrations against asylum seekers’ centres attract participants with different motives. However, the agency has observed that some protests were accompanied by threats, intimidation, vandalism and far-right expressions.
This can have consequences for local government, according to NCTV. Local politicians may sometimes feel constrained in expressing their views when demonstrations descend into violence or threats. The agency calls such self-censorship harmful to the rule of law, because elected officials are less free to do their work under pressure.
NCTV stresses that the terrorist threat in the Netherlands as a whole remains at level 4, ‘substantial’. That figure encompasses multiple ideological threats and does not mean that an attack from the far-right is expected in the short term. The core of the warning is that normalisation could, over the longer term, lower the threshold for hatred, exclusion and possible violence.
The approach focuses partly on online radicalisation and on increasing the resilience of government and society. At the same time, the legal boundary between extremist propaganda, criminal threats and protected speech remains important. The agencies therefore present their warning as a risk assessment, not as a judgement on every political movement or demonstrator.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- NCTV and AIVD are identifying online far-right networks and warning about the normalisation of their ideas.
- NCTV says that demonstrations against asylum seekers’ centres attract participants with different motives.
- Threats, intimidation, vandalism and violence can place local government and the rule of law under pressure.
Left
Arguments The government must actively place limits on extremist propaganda and threats, including when they present themselves as ordinary political criticism. Online platforms, political parties and the media have a responsibility not to further normalise racist and anti-democratic ideas.
Values Equality, protection of minorities, social cohesion and a democratic rule of law.
Consequences Without clear boundaries, intimidation and exclusion can spread. Insufficient action can also affect the sense of safety of minorities and local officials.
Centre
Arguments The warning deserves serious attention, but measures must be precisely targeted at threats, violence and concrete extremist networks. Criticism of migration policy and asylum provision must remain possible within the democratic sphere.
Values The rule of law, proportionality, security and freedom of expression.
Consequences A targeted approach can reduce risks without criminalising legitimate protest. An overly broad definition of extremism could instead increase distrust in the government.
Right
Arguments Security services must tackle violence and threats, but political terms and strong criticism should not automatically be labelled extremism. The government must also take seriously the causes of social discontent about migration and governance.
Values Freedom of expression, order, democratic oversight and national sovereignty.
Consequences An overly broad security approach could make voters feel that their concerns are being dismissed. At the same time, action against actual violence and intimidation remains necessary.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
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The main points can be found directly in publications by NCTV and AIVD. The text explicitly distinguishes between a general risk assessment and a concrete current threat of attack.
- confirmed NCTV describes the threat from far-right terrorism as limited and stable. — This is stated in the briefing on the June 2026 DTN. source
- confirmed The Dutch online far-right network consists of several hundred people. — NCTV gives this estimate in its description of far-right terrorism and far-right extremism. source
- confirmed The general terrorist threat is at level 4. — The national government lists level 4, substantial, on a scale of 1 to 5. source
- confirmed AIVD calls the population replacement theory factually incorrect. — This is stated on the AIVD page about far-right extremism. source
Editor's note
The warning is based on the June 2026 DTN and briefings by AIVD and NCTV. No new concrete attack or arrest has been reported; the uncertainty lies mainly in the possible long-term relationship between normalisation and violence.Sources
- NCTV: dreiging uit meerdere ideologische hoeken houdt aan — Rijksoverheid
- Rechts-terrorisme en -extremisme — NCTV
- Extremisme — AIVD
More on this in Dutch media
- NRC — „aivd nctv”
- NU.nl — „aivd nctv”
- De Telegraaf — „aivd nctv”