OECD sees AI growth, but energy remains a risk
Investment in artificial intelligence is keeping the global economy afloat this year, while high energy prices worsen the outlook.
The global economy will grow slightly faster in 2026 than previously estimated, according to the OECD, partly thanks to investment in artificial intelligence. At the same time, the organisation warns that energy prices, inflation and disappointing returns on AI investment could slow growth next year.
The OECD expects global growth of 2.9 per cent in 2026. That is slightly higher than its previous estimate of 2.8 per cent. For 2027, the organisation forecasts 3.0 per cent growth, lower than the 3.1 per cent previously expected.
According to the OECD, the main boost comes from investment in AI infrastructure. This includes data centres, semiconductors and other parts of the digital chain. The United States is benefiting particularly from this investment wave; Japan and South Korea are seeing their technology exports increase.
Growth is not without risks. The OECD points to more expensive energy, uncertainty in commodity markets, higher interest rates on government bonds and the possibility that AI investments will deliver lower returns than investors expect. Extreme weather linked to a strong El Niño is also cited as a risk.
In a joint scenario, these risks could reduce global growth in 2027 by 0.7 percentage points and increase inflation by 1.1 percentage points. These are not forecasts of what will definitely happen, but model-based estimates of an unfavourable combination of developments.
For the eurozone, the OECD expects growth of 1.0 per cent in both 2026 and 2027. Higher energy prices and interest rates are weighing on activity. The organisation expects inflation in the eurozone to reach 3.0 per cent in 2026 and 2.9 per cent in 2027.
The analysis highlights the tensions surrounding AI. The technology can boost productivity and investment, but it also requires large amounts of electricity and capital. If energy becomes scarce or expensive, data-centre costs will rise and growth could become more concentrated among large companies that can more easily arrange financing and energy contracts.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The OECD estimates global growth at 2.9 per cent in 2026.
- According to the OECD, AI investment is contributing to economic resilience.
- Energy prices and AI returns are important risks in the estimate.
- The effects on growth and inflation are partly based on scenarios.
Left
Arguments The benefits of AI must not be paid for by households, workers and the climate. Governments should limit data-centre energy use, share public infrastructure and ensure that productivity gains are distributed more widely.
Values Affordability, social distribution, climate responsibility and public stewardship.
Consequences Stricter conditions could slow investment, but would ease pressure on electricity grids and prevent profits from accruing mainly to large technology companies.
Centre
Arguments AI can support growth if policy also invests in energy capacity, skills and competition. The institutional approach is not unlimited subsidy, but predictable rules and targeted infrastructure.
Values Productivity, stability, competition and practicality.
Consequences A gradual approach can combine growth and energy security, but requires public investment and does not fully remove the risk of temporary shortages.
Right
Arguments The market should determine which AI applications are profitable. High energy prices are a signal to enable more production and infrastructure, not to constrain innovation in advance.
Values Entrepreneurship, economic growth, technological progress and limited government intervention.
Consequences More room for investment could strengthen competitiveness, but would also increase the risk of energy conflicts, market concentration and loss-making AI projects.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The figures were taken from the public Reuters account of the OECD estimate and checked against the OECD’s context on AI markets. Model scenarios are presented as scenarios, not as definitive outcomes.
- confirmed The OECD estimates global growth at 2.9 per cent in 2026 and 3.0 per cent in 2027. — These figures appear in Reuters’ account of the OECD’s interim estimate. source
- confirmed Investment in AI infrastructure is supporting growth in the United States and technology exports from Japan and South Korea. — Reuters summarises the OECD’s analysis on this point. source
- confirmed An unfavourable combination of risks could reduce growth by 0.7 percentage points and increase inflation by 1.1 percentage points. — This is an OECD scenario estimate reported by Reuters. source
- confirmed The OECD sees risks of concentration when energy and financing costs rise. — The OECD describes large, vertically integrated companies as better able to withstand such shocks. source