Car sales pick up, cause remains uncertain
Provisional figures based on RDW data point to more new registrations in September than in August.
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In September, according to a provisional count, 27,623 new passenger cars were registered, compared with 26,062 in August. The increase coincides with changes to car taxes, but the figures do not prove that tax rules are the cause.
The figures were calculated using open RDW data by Kenteken.TV. The provisional count comes to about 6 per cent more new passenger cars in September than in August. In the same month, 19,648 imported passenger cars were registered, putting new cars clearly ahead of imports.
The registration figures mainly show when cars were registered in someone’s name. They do not directly show when an order was placed, when a car was produced or why a buyer chose a particular time. Business deliveries, model changes and inventory registrations may also affect the figures.
2026 brought several tax changes to the car market. The government lowered the CO2 band thresholds for bpm, increased the rates and adjusted the diesel surcharge. Fully electric cars are subject to different tax treatment, while the discount on motor vehicle tax remains in place temporarily.
That may bring purchasing decisions forward or push them back. For example, a buyer or leasing company may want to register a car before an announced change. Without information about the composition of September’s sales, however, it is impossible to establish how much of the growth was driven by tax anticipation.
The market is also continuing to change rapidly. In the first eight months of 2026, BOVAG and RAI Vereniging registered 228,760 new passenger cars, 3.8 per cent fewer than in the same period of 2025. At the same time, the share of fully electric cars rose to 48.9 per cent of the monthly market in August.
The September figures are provisional and may still be adjusted when the RDW registrations are updated. For manufacturers, importers and dealers, the composition of the growth is particularly important: a short-lived tax-driven spike means something different from a lasting recovery in demand.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- Provisional figures point to more new registrations in September.
- Tax rules for cars changed in 2026.
- The share of electric cars in the market has changed significantly.
- The cause of the monthly increase has not been established.
Left
Arguments Taxes should accelerate the switch to zero-emission transport and make polluting cars less attractive. At the same time, the government must prevent lower-income groups from facing only higher purchase costs.
Values Climate protection, affordability and a fair distribution of the burden.
Consequences Targeted incentives can accelerate decarbonisation, but unpredictable rules can impose costs on consumers and businesses.
Centre
Arguments The government should price emissions, but with stable rules and sufficient time for market participants to adapt. Registration figures should be assessed alongside affordability and infrastructure.
Values Predictability, practicality and a balance between climate and the economy.
Consequences A gradual transition can support investment, but may deliver emissions reductions less quickly.
Right
Arguments Car buyers and businesses should retain the freedom to decide which vehicle suits them. High and changing taxes disrupt the market and can disadvantage people with older cars or limited budgets.
Values Freedom of choice, low taxes and market forces.
Consequences Lower tax pressure can make the market more accessible, but may slow the transition if polluting vehicles remain relatively attractive.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The registration figures and tax changes were checked against RDW-related data and government publications. The text presents the causal link suggested by the headline as unproven.
- confirmed A provisional 27,623 new passenger cars were registered in September, compared with 26,062 in August. — These figures appear in Kenteken.TV’s count derived from RDW data. source
- confirmed The September count is based on open RDW data. — Kenteken.TV lists RDW as its source; RDW confirms the open dataset. source
- confirmed Bpm band thresholds and rates were adjusted in 2026. — This is stated on the Rijksoverheid page about the purchase tax. source
- uncertain Tax changes caused the increase in September. — The sources show coincidence, but no analysis establishing causality. source
Editor's note
The September count is provisional and comes from an analysis of open RDW data. Its coincidence with tax changes is certain; a causal relationship has not been established.Sources
- Nieuwe vs geïmporteerde personenauto's in Nederland — Kenteken.TV
- Open Data RDW: Gekentekende voertuigen — RDW
- Aanschafbelasting (bpm) — Rijksoverheid
- Autoregistraties in augustus vrijwel stabiel — BOVAG
More on this in Dutch media
- de Volkskrant — „autoverkoop rdw”
- NU.nl — „autoverkoop rdw”
- De Telegraaf — „autoverkoop rdw”