Eurozone inflation rises to highest level in three years
Annual price growth reached 3.8 per cent in September, mainly due to more expensive energy.
Inflation in the eurozone rose to 3.8 per cent in September. That is the highest level since September 2023 and clearly above the 3.2 per cent recorded in August.
The figures are based on Eurostat’s flash estimate for the 21 countries that use the euro. The increase was mainly driven by energy prices, which were almost one-fifth higher over the year, according to reports on the Eurostat figures.
The acceleration comes after months in which energy already made a significant contribution to price growth. In August, eurozone inflation stood at 3.2 per cent according to Eurostat, following 2.9 per cent in July.
Higher energy prices are not feeding through in the same way everywhere. National figures from Germany, France and Italy, among others, also showed higher price growth in September, but market analyses said that developments in services prices and core inflation were more moderate than overall inflation.
For now, the picture is therefore primarily one of an energy shock, rather than broad-based price growth across all parts of the economy. That distinction matters to the European Central Bank, because a temporary energy spike is assessed differently from persistent price pressure in wages and services.
In its September projections, the ECB forecast average inflation of 3.0 per cent in 2026, followed by 2.5 per cent in 2027 and 2.1 per cent in 2028. The new monthly estimate makes clear that the risks to those outlooks have increased.
The flash estimate is not yet a definitive figure. Eurostat will later publish a full series with more breakdowns by country and product group. Until then, it remains uncertain what share of the increase is temporary and how much will feed through into other prices.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- Eurozone inflation rose to 3.8 per cent in September.
- Energy was the main reported driver.
- The ECB has a medium-term inflation target of 2 per cent.
Left
Arguments The government should provide targeted compensation to low-income households and prevent energy poverty from increasing. Structural investment in affordable, clean energy is more important than interest-rate rises alone.
Values Purchasing power, social protection and the energy transition.
Consequences Targeted support can cushion the most severe effects, but it costs public money and can support demand.
Centre
Arguments The ECB should distinguish between temporary energy inflation and persistent domestic price pressure. Fiscal and incomes policies should prevent the shock from spreading more widely.
Values Price stability, institutional independence and predictability.
Consequences A measured response avoids both hasty interest-rate rises and a second round of inflation.
Right
Arguments Governments should not provide broad compensation that removes the price signal. Lower taxes and less regulation can make energy and doing business cheaper.
Values Personal responsibility, market forces and fiscal discipline.
Consequences Less government support limits public debt, but may temporarily hit the purchasing power of vulnerable households harder.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
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The main figures have been confirmed by reports on the Eurostat flash estimate and by an independent market analysis. The text makes clear that this is a preliminary estimate and avoids making a definitive prediction about ECB policy.
- confirmed Eurozone inflation stood at 3.8 per cent in September 2026. — The figure is reported on the basis of Eurostat and described by MUFG as the current estimate. source
- confirmed Inflation stood at 3.2 per cent in August. — Eurostat records 3.2 per cent for August 2026. source
- confirmed The increase was mainly caused by energy. — El País and MUFG describe energy as the main driver. source
- confirmed The ECB forecast average inflation at 3.0 per cent in 2026, 2.5 per cent in 2027 and 2.1 per cent in 2028. — These percentages appear in the ECB’s September 2026 projections. source
Editor's note
The 3.8 per cent figure is a flash estimate. The exact contribution of all individual product groups may still change when Eurostat publishes the full figures.Sources
- Euro area annual inflation - September 2026 — Eurostat
- La inflación en la zona euro sube hasta el 3,8% — El País
- Higher euro area inflation, but it remains an energy story — MUFG Research
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2026 — European Central Bank
More on this in Dutch media
- de Volkskrant — „inflatie eurozone”
- NU.nl — „inflatie eurozone”
- De Telegraaf — „inflatie eurozone”