Aramco warns of tight oil stocks
According to CEO Amin Nasser, it could take up to two years to replenish global oil stocks after the crisis.
Follow-up to: Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed until demands are met Sunday, 4 October 2026, 13:02
Global oil stocks have fallen sharply because of the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, according to Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser. He says replenishing stocks could take up to two years even after the strait fully reopens.
Nasser made the remarks on Monday at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London. According to the text of his speech, global oil stocks stood at almost 10 billion barrels at the start of the crisis. Since then, almost 3 billion barrels of gross supply are said to have been lost.
According to Nasser, more than 1 billion barrels have been drawn from stocks to cover the shortfall. Less than 6 billion barrels of commercial stocks are said to remain, most of which, he says, is not practically available for immediate delivery.
The figures are an estimate by the head of one of the world's largest oil companies, not an independent stock measurement. Reuters reported the same key points from the conference. The two-year estimate also assumes both a recovery in shipping and continued demand.
Nasser expects pressure on crude oil and refined products to persist as long as the Strait of Hormuz is not fully open and confidence in the market does not return. The strait is therefore not only a military or diplomatic issue, but also a bottleneck for refineries, transport companies and energy importers.
For consumers, the warning does not automatically imply a particular petrol or diesel price. Prices also depend on demand, refining capacity, exchange rates, taxes and how governments deploy strategic reserves. A smaller buffer could, however, amplify price shocks if new disruptions occur.
The warning has once again sharpened the debate over energy security. Governments can opt for additional strategic reserves and alternative supply routes, while companies can adjust their contracts and logistical planning. At the same time, the structural question remains of how long economies want to remain dependent on oil amid geopolitical uncertainty and climate policy.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The head of Saudi Aramco is warning of low globally available oil stocks.
- His figures are company estimates, not an independent global stock measurement.
- The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is affecting both crude oil and refined products.
Left
Arguments The warning shows how vulnerable an economy remains when it is heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Governments should invest more quickly in energy efficiency, public transport and renewable energy.
Values Climate protection, affordability and reducing geopolitical dependence.
Consequences Accelerating the energy transition could limit future price shocks, but it requires substantial investment and could cause higher costs in the short term.
Centre
Arguments Energy security requires a combination of strategic reserves, multiple supply routes, demand reduction during crises and a gradual transition to cleaner energy.
Values Continuity, affordability and administrative feasibility.
Consequences A mixed strategy spreads risk, but for the time being requires both fossil-fuel infrastructure and investment in alternatives.
Right
Arguments The first priority is to keep sufficient affordable energy available. Governments should not unnecessarily restrict production, refining and transport, and should give companies room to organise their own stocks and routes.
Values Energy security, economic growth and competitiveness.
Consequences More production and less regulation could ease shortages, but may increase long-term dependence on oil and climate risks.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The key figures were checked directly against Aramco's speech and independent Reuters reporting. The article explicitly attributes the stock estimate to Nasser and does not present it as an established independent measurement.
- confirmed Nasser said replenishing oil stocks could take up to two years. — This appears in Aramco's official speech. source
- confirmed According to Nasser, the world entered the crisis with almost 10 billion barrels in stock. — A figure from the speech; it remains an estimate presented by Nasser. source
- confirmed According to Nasser, almost 3 billion barrels of supply have been lost. — Mentioned in Aramco's speech and Reuters reporting. source
- confirmed More than 1 billion barrels have been drawn from stocks. — A figure from Nasser's official statement. source
- confirmed According to Nasser, less than 6 billion barrels of commercial stocks remain. — Reported as a statement by Nasser, not as an independently established total. source
- confirmed The price of oil for consumers does not automatically follow from this warning. — This is an economic interpretation: pricing depends not only on stocks but also on demand, refining, taxes and exchange rates. source
Editor's note
The figures are statements by Aramco CEO Amin Nasser and are confirmed by Reuters reporting as his estimate. Independent verification of globally available stocks is lacking.Sources
The story so far
- Friday, 2 October 2026, 00:01 US sends third aircraft carrier to Middle East
- Friday, 2 October 2026, 20:02 Saudi Arabia considers offensive against Houthis
- Saturday, 3 October 2026, 06:17 Camp David talks heighten pressure over Iran and Yemen
- Sunday, 4 October 2026, 00:57 US says it expelled two Iranian UN delegates
- Sunday, 4 October 2026, 13:02 Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed until demands are met
- Sunday, 4 October 2026, 16:00 Yemen launches offensive against Houthis as war flares up
- Monday, 5 October 2026, 12:13 Yemen says it has recaptured territory near Bab al-Mandeb
- Monday, 5 October 2026, 15:41 Aramco warns of tight oil stocks (this article)