UN says El Niño will peak in December
The WMO expects the climate phenomenon to strengthen further in the final months of 2026.
The current El Niño will probably reach its strongest phase around December, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. For October to December, the WMO expects an average temperature anomaly of approximately 3.7 degrees in the Niño 3.4 region, but the effects vary considerably by region and cannot be predicted fully.
El Niño occurs when seawater in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal. This warming affects the atmosphere and can change the global distribution of rain, drought and temperature.
The WMO bases its forecast on an ensemble of several climate models. The models point to further intensification during the October-November-December season, with a peak around December. This is a forecast, not an already measured record value.
American NOAA models also point to a very strong event. NOAA estimates the chance of a historically strong El Niño in the final quarter of 2026 at 75 per cent. Such probabilities say something about the likelihood of a climate pattern, not about the weather on a specific day or in a specific place.
According to the KNMI, parts of the Amazon region, Indonesia and Africa could face more drought and heat. Other regions may experience more rain and flooding instead. The precise effects depend, among other things, on the season, regional conditions and interaction with other climate patterns.
A strong El Niño makes extreme weather situations more likely, but does not automatically cause every individual extreme weather event. Governments and businesses mainly use the forecasts to prepare for water shortages, crop risks, heat and disruption to infrastructure. The WMO also warns that the effects may continue for months after the seawater begins to cool.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The article clearly distinguishes between observations, model forecasts and possible effects. The WMO, the KNMI and NOAA support the core of the report.
- confirmed The WMO expects a peak around December 2026. — The WMO names December as the expected peak of the warming. source
- confirmed The WMO expects an anomaly of approximately 3.7 degrees in Niño 3.4 from October to December. — This is stated in the current WMO update. source
- confirmed NOAA estimates the chance of a historically strong event at 75 per cent. — The NOAA diagnosis gives this probability for October to December 2026. source
Editor's note
The peak in December and the temperature anomaly are model forecasts. We did not claim that this will certainly be the strongest El Niño since 1950; the models indicate a chance of a historically strong event.Sources
- Global Seasonal Climate Update for October-November-December 2026 — World Meteorological Organization
- El Niño 2026-2027: waar verwachten we de grootste gevolgen? — KNMI
- Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — NOAA
More on this in Dutch media
- NU.nl — „el niño”
- De Telegraaf — „el niño”
- Trouw — „el niño”