WTO sees stronger world trade growth driven by AI investment
The trade organisation raises its forecast for goods trade but warns of risks from war and energy prices.
The World Trade Organization expects global goods trade to grow by 3.9 per cent this year. That is more than twice the previous estimate of 1.9 per cent. Demand for chips, servers and other AI-related products is driving trade in particular.
The WTO also raised its forecast for next year on Thursday: from 2.9 to 4.1 per cent growth. This concerns growth in the volume of goods trade, not services. The organisation stresses that the new figures are an estimate, not a guarantee of how the global economy will develop.
According to the WTO, goods trade grew by 3.5 per cent in the first half of 2026. AI-related products accounted for 47 per cent of the growth. Trade in these products was 67 per cent higher than in the same period a year earlier, mainly as a result of investment in data centres, servers and semiconductors.
According to the trade organisation, strong demand for AI equipment is offsetting some of the disruption caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Energy and fertiliser flows have become more vulnerable, and transport via major shipping routes may become more expensive and uncertain. Other suppliers have absorbed some of the shortfall.
In March, the WTO was still forecasting 1.9 per cent growth in global goods trade in 2026. The organisation bases its new estimate on actual trade growth in the first half of the year and continued investment in AI infrastructure. The estimate therefore remains sensitive to a cooling of the AI market.
For businesses, the forecast does not mean that all sectors will benefit. Manufacturers of chips, servers and network equipment are being supported by the investment wave, while energy-intensive companies and businesses dependent on routes through high-risk areas may continue to face higher costs. Trade in oil, gas and fertiliser also remains sensitive to geopolitical developments.
The figures also show how dependent global trade is becoming on a relatively small group of technology products. The WTO warns that trade growth could slow if AI investment declines, energy prices rise further or transport restrictions persist. It is therefore too early to infer a broad economic upturn from the forecast.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The WTO has raised its estimate for global goods trade.
- AI-related goods account for a large share of the reported growth.
- The estimate does not concern trade in services.
- War, energy prices and transport disruptions remain downside risks.
Left
Arguments The figures show not only growth but also a concentration of economic power among technology companies and countries that control chips and data centres. Trade policy should therefore protect workers, the environment and access to technology rather than pursuing greater volume alone.
Values Fair distribution, public investment and sustainability.
Consequences More conditions attached to subsidies and trade may increase costs, but reduce dependence and social harm.
Centre
Arguments The institutional approach is to combine open trade with risk management and diversification of supply chains. Governments should strengthen WTO rules while retaining scope for temporary measures during security or energy crises.
Values Predictability, international cooperation and economic resilience.
Consequences A gradual approach prevents abrupt trading blocs, but may respond more slowly to geopolitical shocks.
Right
Arguments The growth confirms that entrepreneurship and investment in AI are creating new demand and trade. Governments should primarily reduce barriers, unnecessary regulation and protectionism so that businesses can scale up quickly.
Values Market freedom, competition and innovation.
Consequences Fewer trade barriers may accelerate growth, but also make economies more vulnerable to concentrations of power and geopolitical dependence.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The current forecasts and breakdown of AI's contribution are drawn from AP's account of the WTO update. WTO publications confirm the earlier trade growth and the role of AI goods; risks are framed as forecast risks.
- confirmed The WTO expects goods trade to grow by 3.9 per cent in 2026. — Reported by AP on the basis of the WTO update. source
- confirmed The forecast for 2027 is 4.1 per cent. — Reported by AP. source
- confirmed AI-related goods accounted for 47 per cent of trade growth in the first half of 2026. — Reported by AP with reference to the WTO. source
- confirmed Trade in AI-related products rose by 67 per cent year on year. — Reported by AP with reference to the WTO. source
- confirmed The WTO saw strong growth in AI-related electronic components in the first quarter of 2026. — Confirmed by the official WTO analysis of the first quarter. source
Editor's note
The new forecasts and figures on AI goods were reported by AP on the basis of the WTO update. WTO sources confirm the underlying trade and AI trend, but the eventual growth remains uncertain.Sources
- WTO raises merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9% as AI boom offsets hit from Middle East — Associated Press
- Global goods trade resilient in the first quarter of 2026 despite war in Middle East — World Trade Organization
- Goods barometer points to resilient trade growth despite headwinds — World Trade Organization
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