NATO commander sets out strategy against Russia today
General Alexus Grynkewich presents NATO’s approach to a possible conflict on the eastern flank in Warsaw.
Follow-up to: NATO general to speak today on deterrence Monday, 12 October 2026, 07:01
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The NATO commander-in-chief in Europe, US General Alexus Grynkewich, is presenting his so-called Theory of Victory in Warsaw on Monday. The speech is intended to clarify how the alliance would seek to deter and respond militarily to a Russian attack on NATO territory.
Grynkewich is speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum, which takes place on Monday and Tuesday. According to an interview published by Polish broadcaster TVP World on Sunday, he will explain how NATO forces would operate if the alliance were drawn into a conflict. The speech follows earlier warnings from NATO countries that European defence must be strengthened more quickly.
The name Theory of Victory refers to a military strategy, not an announced operation. No details of its full contents had been made public by Monday morning. Grynkewich did say that NATO has a plan for victory in a possible conflict and that the alliance is not seeking escalation. According to him, the risk of a large-scale Russian attack on a NATO country is currently relatively low, because, he says, Russian forces are largely tied down in Ukraine.
Grynkewich’s position makes the speech politically sensitive. Since July 2025, he has been Supreme Allied Commander Europe, the military commander responsible for planning and carrying out NATO operations in Europe. In the event of an attack on an ally, he can, within the alliance’s political decision-making process, prepare and implement military measures.
The meeting is taking place against a backdrop of uncertainty over the future US military presence in Europe. According to AFP, European allies are taking possible changes to the US troop deployment into account, while European countries are stepping up their own defence efforts. The debate is therefore not only about Russia, but also about how much military capacity Europe itself should be able to provide.
For the Netherlands, the division of responsibilities is particularly relevant. Dutch military personnel are part of NATO units on the eastern flank and the Netherlands, like other allies, is investing in air defence, munitions and cyber warfare. The precise implications of Grynkewich’s plan for Dutch units are not yet known.
The speech can therefore primarily be read as an attempt to link military planning and political deterrence. NATO wants to show that an attack would not only prompt a political response, but has also been thought through militarily in advance. At the same time, the eventual deployment of NATO resources remains dependent on decisions by the member states.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- Grynkewich is presenting a NATO strategy for a possible conflict in Warsaw on 12 October.
- He is NATO’s military commander in Europe.
- The full contents of the strategy had not yet been published at the time of writing.
- European allies are discussing higher defence spending and the future US role in Europe.
Left
Arguments The emphasis should be on diplomacy, support for Ukraine and preventing an arms race. From this perspective, a strategy for a rapid victory could fuel escalation and higher military spending.
Values Collective security, the international rule of law and the protection of civilians carry considerable weight.
Consequences More money for defence could come at the expense of social spending; at the same time, support for Ukraine remains necessary to prevent a larger conflict.
Centre
Arguments NATO must be able to deter credibly, but military plans must remain linked to political oversight, crisis communication and diplomatic ways out.
Values Institutional responsibility, proportionality and allied cohesion.
Consequences European countries will probably need to invest more, while also seeking to preserve transatlantic cooperation.
Right
Arguments An adversary is deterred above all when it knows that an attack will be punished swiftly and convincingly. European countries must therefore become less dependent on US capacity and strengthen their armed forces rapidly.
Values National security, military preparedness and credible power.
Consequences Higher defence budgets and a larger military industry are considered necessary from this perspective, even if that limits room for other budgetary choices.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The article’s core is based on an official agenda, NATO information and two independent news sources. The still-unknown content of the speech is explicitly marked as uncertain.
- confirmed The Warsaw Security Forum takes place on 12 and 13 October 2026. — The forum’s official website lists these dates. source
- confirmed Alexus Grynkewich is Supreme Allied Commander Europe. — This is stated on the official NATO page about the position. source
- confirmed Grynkewich is presenting a Theory of Victory on Monday. — This is reported in the TVP World interview and previewed by AFP. source
- confirmed The full contents of the strategy had not been made public on Monday morning. — The official forum and NATO pages consulted contain no full text of the speech. source
- confirmed European allies are taking possible changes to the US troop presence into account. — AFP describes the uncertainty over possible US troop reductions in Europe. source
Editor's note
The scheduling of the speech and its main outlines have been confirmed. The full strategy had not been made public at 07:26; statements about its contents have therefore been limited and attributed.Sources
- NATO 'ready to act' if Russia attacks, general tells TVP World — TVP World
- WSF 2026 — Warsaw Security Forum
- Supreme Allied Commander Europe — NATO
- Top NATO commander set to issue warning to Russia over any attack — AFP
The story so far
- Monday, 12 October 2026, 07:01 NATO general to speak today on deterrence
- Monday, 12 October 2026, 07:30 NATO commander sets out strategy against Russia today (this article)
More on this in Dutch media
- RTL Nieuws — „navo rusland”
- NOS — „navo rusland”
- Het Parool — „navo rusland”