Chinese exports drive trade surplus to new record
Exports rose by 36.3 per cent in September compared with a year earlier.
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Chinese exports grew much more strongly than expected in September. According to Chinese customs, exports rose by 36.3 per cent year on year, taking the trade surplus for the first nine months to $938 billion.
China’s exports came to $447.18 billion in September. Imports rose by 31 per cent to $313.65 billion. This brought the monthly trade surplus to $133.53 billion, according to figures published by Chinese customs on Wednesday.
Growth was stronger than in August, when exports rose by 25 per cent according to the same statistics. Technology products, semiconductors and cars in particular contributed to the increase in exports, the AP news agency and the South China Morning Post report. The figures cover trade in goods; services are not included.
From January to September, China’s trade surplus came to $938 billion. This means China could exceed the record of approximately $1.2 trillion for the whole of 2025. Whether that happens will depend on trade flows in the final three months of the year.
The figures increase pressure on trading partners. The European Union and other economies are trying to narrow the gap between Chinese exports and imports and are concerned about competition for their own producers. Strong Chinese export growth could affect prices and market shares, particularly in sectors such as the car industry, electronics and machinery.
A large surplus does not automatically mean that all Chinese companies are profitable or that the domestic economy is growing strongly. The figures measure the value of goods crossing the border. In the same publication, the Chinese government did not explain precisely what role subsidies, exchange rates, stockbuilding or temporary seasonal effects played.
The export peak also coincides with a period in which companies are increasing deliveries ahead of the end of the year. Analysts will therefore have to assess how much of the growth is structural. For European companies, the key question is whether higher Chinese exports will lead to greater import pressure or instead to additional demand for raw materials, machinery and transport.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- Chinese exports grew by 36.3 per cent year on year in September.
- The trade surplus for the first nine months amounted to $938 billion.
- The figures come from Chinese customs and measure trade in goods.
Left
Arguments Emphasises that a large surplus can also point to unbalanced growth, dependence on exports and pressure on workers and producers in trading-partner countries.
Values Economic equality, job security and a balanced distribution of prosperity.
Consequences Fears that European industries will lose jobs if Chinese overcapacity is exported without social or trade conditions.
Centre
Arguments Wants to keep trade open, but with controls on subsidies, market access and fair competition. The institutional route runs through European rules and negotiations.
Values Predictability, competition and international cooperation.
Consequences Emphasises that targeted measures may be more effective than broad trade barriers that raise consumer prices.
Right
Arguments Emphasises protecting domestic industry and strategic dependencies, particularly in cars, technology and energy products.
Values Economic sovereignty, national resilience and protection of the domestic market.
Consequences Fears that passivity will give China market power and is more inclined to advocate tariffs, screening and local production.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The key figures can be traced directly to Chinese customs statistics as reported by AP and SCMP. Expectations of a new annual record and consequences for European companies are presented as possibilities and interpretation, not established facts.
- confirmed Chinese exports rose by 36.3 per cent year on year in September. — Reported by AP and SCMP on the basis of Chinese customs figures. source
- confirmed China’s trade surplus amounted to $133.53 billion in September. — The amount appears in the customs statistics reproduced by SCMP and is reported in rounded form by AP as $133.5 billion. source
- confirmed The surplus from January to September amounted to $938 billion. — AP reports this amount on the basis of Chinese customs statistics. source
Editor's note
The export, import and surplus figures were attributed by AP and SCMP to Chinese customs. The possible consequences for European companies are economic interpretation; the precise causes of the export peak remain partly uncertain.Sources
- China’s exports surge 36.3% in September from a year ago — Associated Press
- Developing: China’s exports surge more than 36% in September — South China Morning Post
- Monthly trade statistics — General Administration of Customs of China