Atlantic ocean current may prove recoverable
A new climate model finds no irreversible tipping point for the AMOC, but Greenland’s ice loss will continue for a long time.
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A study in Science Advances concludes that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation can recover as temperatures cool, even after severe weakening caused by warming. That is encouraging, but the research is a modelling study and does not say that current climate change will have no consequences.
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, usually abbreviated to AMOC, transports warm water northwards and cold water back southwards. The system influences the climate around the Atlantic Ocean and is often associated with the Gulf Stream, although the terms do not mean exactly the same thing.
Researchers including scientists from the Danish Meteorological Institute used an Earth system model in which the Greenland ice sheet and the ocean affect each other. They simulated various scenarios involving strong warming, stabilisation and then cooling. In the model, the AMOC weakened as temperatures rose, but the circulation recovered when temperatures fell again.
In their simulations, the researchers found no dynamic tipping point after which the AMOC would disappear permanently. The study therefore speaks of recoverability under cooling conditions. Reuters stresses at the same time that recovery could take centuries and that a weakened circulation could have consequences for a long time.
That does not make the finding a licence for continued emissions. The same study concludes that the loss of ice mass in Greenland is much less reversible. According to the model, the ice sheet continues to lose mass after warming has stabilised and responds only slowly to cooling. As a result, sea levels could continue to rise for a long time.
The researchers stress that the study is not a measurement of the current AMOC. It concerns model calculations under idealised emissions pathways. Other models and observations may estimate the speed and extent of weakening and recovery differently.
The good news is therefore limited but real: according to this research, a weakened ocean circulation does not automatically have to be irreversible. The caveat is at least as important: rapid emissions cuts remain necessary to limit warming, ice loss and long-term climate damage.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The study is modelling research published in Science Advances.
- The AMOC recovers in the simulations as temperatures cool.
- Greenland’s ice loss continues for a long time in the simulations.
- The study does not say that current climate change will have no consequences.
Left
Arguments The study underlines that rapidly reducing emissions is better than trying to recover later. The possible recovery of the AMOC must not be used to postpone climate policy.
Values Precaution, intergenerational justice and protection of vulnerable communities.
Consequences Reducing emissions more quickly requires major investment, but limits the risks of long-term climate damage.
Centre
Arguments The finding is relevant to climate models and risk assessment, but requires comparison with other models and measurements. Policy must take uncertainty into account without using it as either an excuse or an argument for panic.
Values Scientific care, proportionality and institutional knowledge.
Consequences A step-by-step approach can build public support, but must not delay necessary emissions reductions.
Right
Arguments The research shows that the climate system may be more resilient than some scenarios suggest. Policy should therefore remain technically feasible and economically affordable, rather than focusing exclusively on the worst conceivable model.
Values Economic continuity, innovation and administrative restraint.
Consequences Greater emphasis on adaptation and innovation can keep costs manageable, but does not automatically reduce the risks of further ice loss.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The study was published in Science Advances and its main finding is independently summarised by Reuters. The text makes clear that this is modelling research and keeps the irreversibility of Greenland’s ice loss in view as an important limitation.
- confirmed The study finds recovery of the AMOC as temperatures cool in the simulations. — This is stated in the summary of the published study. source
- confirmed The research found no dynamic tipping point for the AMOC in the model used. — The abstract says that the weakened states in this model do not constitute dynamic tipping. source
- confirmed According to the model, Greenland’s ice loss continues for a long time. — The study describes the ice sheet as much less reversible than the ocean circulation. source
Editor's note
This is peer-reviewed modelling research with a recent publication and an earlier publicly available version of the research. The result concerns recoverability in simulations; there is no guarantee that the real AMOC will behave in exactly this way.Sources
- Reversible Atlantic overturning despite continued Greenland ice sheet melt — Science Advances, samenvatting via Life Science Network
- Atlantic Ocean currents can recover from severe climate weakening, study finds — Reuters via ThePrint
- Reversible Atlantic overturning despite continued Greenland Ice Sheet melt — European Geosciences Union
More on this in Dutch media
- NOS — „amoc oceaan”
- Het Parool — „amoc oceaan”
- Trouw — „amoc oceaan”