Brazil expects record harvest of 354.5 million tonnes
The IBGE statistics agency’s estimate is 2.4 per cent above 2025 production.
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Brazilian farmers could harvest a record 354.5 million tonnes of grain, pulses and oilseeds in 2026. This is according to a new estimate from Brazil’s statistics agency IBGE, published on Thursday.
The estimate covers the full 2026 harvest and is based on IBGE’s monthly agricultural survey. The agency raised its forecast by 1.56 million tonnes compared with the August estimate. Compared with final production in 2025, the new forecast is 8.4 million tonnes, or 2.4 per cent, higher.
The three main crops are soya, maize and rice. Together, they account for around 93 per cent of estimated production. IBGE expects 175 million tonnes of soya, 5.4 per cent more than in 2025. Expected maize production stands at 143.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.1 per cent.
Not all crops will produce more. Rice output is estimated at 11.2 million tonnes, 11.4 per cent less than a year earlier. For wheat, the agency expects 5.9 million tonnes, a decline of 24 per cent. The forecast for cotton and beans is also lower than in the previous year.
The expected harvested area stands at 83.2 million hectares. That is around 2 per cent more than in 2025. The estimate is not a final result: IBGE updates the figures monthly based on new information about areas, yields and crop development.
The high production of soya and maize is particularly relevant to international markets. Brazil is a major exporter of agricultural products and supplies raw materials for food, animal feed and industrial applications. A larger available harvest could affect trade flows, but in itself says nothing about future prices. Demand, exchange rates, transport costs and stocks are also important.
Dutch companies mainly feel the effects of the Brazilian figures through international commodity markets. Traders, animal-feed companies, food producers and logistics firms monitor the estimate because changes in Brazilian volumes could affect availability and competition. Until the harvest is in, however, it remains a forecast.
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Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The production and growth figures can be traced directly to the new IBGE estimate. The article makes clear that this is a forecast and avoids claims about certain price effects.
- confirmed Brazil’s 2026 harvest is estimated at 354.5 million tonnes. — Current reporting cites the IBGE survey. source
- confirmed The forecast is 2.4 per cent above 2025 production. — This percentage appears in Agência Estado’s publication. source
- confirmed Soya is estimated at 175 million tonnes and maize at 143.3 million tonnes. — These crop-specific figures appear in the summary of the new estimate. source
- confirmed The figures are forecasts that can be revised monthly. — IBGE describes the LSPA as a monthly estimate and monitoring of the harvest. source
Editor's note
The figures are an IBGE estimate for 2026, not an actual harvest. The recent publication is available through Agência Estado/UOL; IBGE has confirmed the methodology and the monthly forecast’s nature.Sources
- IBGE: safra 2026 alcançará 354,5 milhões de t — UOL / Agência Estado
- Levantamento Sistemático da Produção Agrícola — IBGE
- Conab: produção de grãos pode chegar a 358,6 milhões de toneladas — Agência Brasil
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- FD — „brazilië oogst”