ACM expects heating bills to rise by a quarter in 2027
The regulator asks suppliers to limit price increases to what their costs require.
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An average household connected to a heat network is expected to pay a quarter more for its heat supply next year. ANP reported this on Friday, citing the Netherlands Authority for Consumers and Markets (ACM), which is urging suppliers not to raise their tariffs automatically.
The warning concerns expected costs from 1 January 2027. According to ANP, it affects around 700,000 households connected to a heat network. The increase cited is a forecast for an average household: it does not establish how much an individual customer will pay next year. The report contains no definitive tariff list for 2027, nor does it provide a breakdown by heat supplier. [ANP via NL Vandaag](https://nl-vandaag.nl/economie/steeds-meer-huishoudens-merken-hoge-energieprijzen-zegt-acm/)
The explanation lies in the link between maximum heat tariffs and the gas price. Under the ACM's methodology, this link is intended to prevent heat users from paying more than comparable consumers using gas. When gas becomes more expensive, the permitted heat tariff can therefore also rise. The calculation of the maximum thus follows a statutory comparison with gas consumption; it is not a separate calculation of each heat network's production costs.
That distinction is important to the appeal the regulator is now making. According to ANP, the ACM is asking heat suppliers to introduce an increase only when their costs make it necessary. Companies that do not use natural gas to produce heat can charge lower tariffs, according to the regulator. The appeal itself does not yet make clear which suppliers will do so or how much difference it will make to their customers.
A maximum tariff is also an upper limit, rather than a compulsory selling price. The ACM also explains this in its tariff decision for the current year. A supplier may therefore remain below that limit. Assessing the bill for a particular connection requires the tariffs the heat supplier actually chooses and the amount of heat consumed. The national forecast of a quarter increase in costs therefore cannot simply be applied to every home. [ACM](https://www.acm.nl/nl/publicaties/acm-stelt-maximale-warmtetarieven-2026-vast)
To calculate the maximum consumption tariff, the ACM uses information from the ten largest gas suppliers. According to ConsuWijzer's explanation, this concerns tariffs for one-year contracts at three points in time: in September, October and November. Their average helps determine the upper limit per gigajoule of heat. A warning in October therefore has a different status from the final annual tariff decision. [ACM ConsuWijzer](https://consument.acm.nl/stadsverwarming-en-blokverwarming/hoe-stelt-ACM-de-warmtetarieven-vast)
The reporting thus leaves two questions unanswered that are crucial to customers: how high will the definitive maximum tariffs for 2027 be, and what prices will suppliers subsequently charge? According to the regulator, the warning indicates that a substantial increase is likely, but it is not an announcement of a single uniform new tariff. Nor can the available information establish how much of the expected increase at individual heat suppliers is caused by higher costs.
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One story, several perspectives
What is established
- According to ANP, the ACM expects heat supply costs for an average connected household to be a quarter higher in 2027.
- The statutory maximum tariffs are linked to gas prices.
- Heat suppliers may remain below the maximum.
Left
Arguments Affordable heating is a basic service. Protecting households must carry more weight than the scope to make full use of a higher statutory maximum; insight into actual costs and targeted support deserve priority.
Values Financial security, affordability and a fair distribution of the costs of the transition to sustainability.
Consequences This approach fears that higher bills will worsen financial difficulties and undermine confidence in collective heat supply systems.
Centre
Arguments Tariff rules must protect households while keeping a reliable heat supply viable. Transparent costs, verifiable returns and predictable decisions provide a basis for balancing those interests.
Values Reliable governance, practicality and balanced consumer protection.
Consequences This approach seeks to prevent both unnecessary price increases and financial difficulties for essential heat supply services.
Right
Arguments Heat suppliers must be able to recover demonstrable costs, but a higher statutory ceiling does not automatically justify a higher price. Effective regulation, cost discipline and room for affordable alternatives are more important than general subsidies.
Values Individual responsibility, efficiency, freedom of choice and manageable public spending.
Consequences This approach fears that broad compensation will perpetuate inefficiency and shift costs to taxpayers.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The current ANP report supports the forecast and the appeal to suppliers; primary ACM sources confirm the tariff methodology described. The text consistently presents the increase as a forecast and uses the tariff information for 2026 solely as background.
- confirmed On 16 October 2026, ANP published the forecast that an average household would pay a quarter more for its heat supply next year. — The report published on 16 October at 13:35 explicitly attributes this forecast to the ACM. source
- confirmed According to ANP, the warning concerns around 700,000 connected households and costs from 1 January 2027. — The number and the period from which it applies are given in the current report. source
- confirmed The ACM asks suppliers to raise tariffs only when their costs make it necessary. — ANP mentions this appeal and the option for producers that do not use natural gas to charge lower tariffs. source
- confirmed Maximum heat tariffs are linked to gas prices; the consumption tariff uses one-year contract tariffs from the ten largest gas suppliers in September, October and November. — ConsuWijzer's primary explanation describes the link, the group of suppliers and the three measurement points. source
- confirmed A maximum set by the ACM is an upper limit and not a compulsory tariff for suppliers. — The ACM describes the tariffs set as the maximum amounts suppliers may charge. source
- uncertain Every connected household will actually pay exactly a quarter more. — The source gives an average forecast, not individual tariffs. The article explicitly does not draw this conclusion. source
Editor's note
The new forecast was published by ANP on 16 October and attributed to the ACM. The primary sources confirm the tariff methodology; the underlying current monitoring report and the definitive tariffs for 2027 were not consulted. Older tariff information is used solely as background.Sources
- Steeds meer huishoudens merken hoge energieprijzen, zegt ACM — ANP via NL Vandaag
- De ACM stelt de warmtetarieven vast — ACM ConsuWijzer
- ACM stelt maximale warmtetarieven 2026 vast — Autoriteit Consument & Markt
More on this in Dutch media
- NOS — „warmtenetten warmtetarieven”
- Het Parool — „warmtenetten warmtetarieven”
- de Volkskrant — „warmtenetten warmtetarieven”