Indonesian fires far larger than official figures suggest
Satellite analyses point to almost two million hectares of burned land; the lower government figure covers a shorter period.
Follow-up to: Smoke from Indonesia continues to affect Southeast Asia Sunday, 18 October 2026, 23:40
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In Indonesia, more than 1.9 million hectares of land burned between January and the end of September, according to a satellite analysis. That figure is far higher than the official estimate by the Indonesian government, which reported 202,000 hectares through the end of July.
The analysis comes from Nusantara Atlas, a project that uses satellite imagery to track fires and burned areas. AFP reported on Monday that the estimate exceeds 1.9 million hectares. The Indonesian government has not updated its official area estimate since July.
The difference does not automatically mean that one of the figures is wrong. Government agencies and independent researchers may use different definitions, measurement methods and periods. Satellite analyses may also include areas where fire burned briefly or where the boundary between recent and older damage is difficult to establish.
What is clear is that the fires are causing health problems and that the smoke has spread beyond Indonesia. According to data from Indonesia’s Ministry of Health, 277,075 cases of respiratory complaints had been reported in seven provinces by 12 October. That figure concerns reports linked to the smoke; it is not a national estimate of all health effects.
On Monday, Singapore announced that it would send preventive warnings to three Indonesian companies that may be linked to fires in Kalimantan. Such a warning is not a finding of liability. Singapore uses the measure to call on companies to prevent smoke pollution and cross-border nuisance.
The fires are therefore not only a domestic Indonesian problem. Smoke can worsen air quality in neighbouring countries and regularly leads to diplomatic pressure. The Indonesian government has deployed additional resources to tackle the fires, but the scale of the damage and the cause of each fire have not yet been fully established. Because the measurement periods differ, these figures alone do not show whether the official inventory underestimates the damage.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- A satellite analysis estimates the burned area to be far larger than the latest official Indonesian estimate.
- Indonesian government data report hundreds of thousands of respiratory complaints in seven provinces.
- Singapore is taking preventive action against three companies over possible involvement in fires.
- The precise cause and responsibility for each fire have not been established.
Left
Arguments The scale of the smoke and health damage calls for stricter oversight of land use, companies and deforestation. Neighbouring countries may hold Indonesia to account for cross-border pollution.
Values Public health, climate responsibility and nature protection.
Consequences Stricter rules may affect companies and local communities, but delaying action will increase the damage.
Centre
Arguments Better measurements and cooperation are needed before sanctions are imposed. The government should fund firefighting while gathering evidence for each company.
Values Proportionality, practicability and regional cooperation.
Consequences A step-by-step approach prevents false accusations, but may work more slowly than the smoke crisis requires.
Right
Arguments Indonesia must monitor its own territory more effectively and hold companies that breach the rules to account. Neighbouring countries should not collectively hold all Indonesian agriculture and industry responsible.
Values National responsibility, property rights and economic continuity.
Consequences Targeted enforcement protects the economy better than broad trade restrictions, but requires credible oversight.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The new figures and Singaporean measure have been confirmed by reporting from AFP, AP and Reuters. The article makes clear that the figures use different measurement methods and cover different periods.
- confirmed Nusantara Atlas estimates that more than 1.9 million hectares burned between January and the end of September. — AFP cites the satellite analysis. source
- confirmed The Indonesian government reported 202,000 hectares of burned land at the end of July. — AFP and Reuters cite this official figure. source
- confirmed By 12 October, 277,075 cases of respiratory complaints had been reported in seven provinces. — Reuters cites data from Indonesia’s Ministry of Health. source
- confirmed Singapore is sending preventive warnings to three Indonesian companies. — AP reports the announcement by the National Environment Agency. source
Editor's note
The independent satellite estimate and the official Indonesian figures differ sharply, so both have been explicitly presented alongside each other. The number of health reports comes from Indonesian government data and is not a complete causal health assessment.Sources
- Indonesia fires have burned nearly two million hectares: monitor — AFP
- Singapore expands crackdown on Indonesian companies linked to haze — Associated Press
- Indonesia's Prabowo orders more resources to fight wildfires as haze anger grows — Reuters via MarketScreener
The story so far
- Sunday, 18 October 2026, 23:40 Smoke from Indonesia continues to affect Southeast Asia
- Monday, 19 October 2026, 19:41 Indonesian fires far larger than official figures suggest (this article)
More on this in Dutch media
- De Telegraaf — „indonesië bosbranden”
- Trouw — „indonesië bosbranden”
- RTL Nieuws — „indonesië bosbranden”