UN: 1.5C climate target no longer achievable
A new UNEP report urges countries to limit further warming as quickly as possible and return below the threshold later.
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The aim of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius without breaching that threshold is no longer achievable, according to the UN Environment Programme. That is stated in the Emissions Gap Report 2026, which will be presented on Wednesday.
The United Nations is thereby shifting the emphasis from prevention to limiting and returning. According to UNEP, countries must first keep the temperature rise as low as possible and then work towards bringing it back below 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
The report compares emissions resulting from current policies with the emissions needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The gap remains large: according to UNEP, the new national climate plans deliver far less emissions reduction than is needed for a return path.
The 1.5-degree threshold is not a sudden tipping point at which all consequences begin at once. It is an internationally agreed guideline for limiting the risks of climate change as much as possible. According to climate research, every additional fraction of a degree increases pressure on ecosystems, health, food supplies and water availability.
UNEP stresses that exceeding the threshold does not mean climate policy is pointless. Faster reductions in the use of coal, oil and gas can lower the peak of warming. The programme also cites existing policy measures that have demonstrably reduced emissions and, according to the report, can be applied on a larger scale.
The organisation distinguishes between measurements and scenarios. Exceeding 1.5 degrees is a conclusion about the feasibility of current policy and current plans; the extent and duration of further warming will remain dependent on choices that governments, businesses and consumers have yet to make.
The report will be explained on Wednesday at a meeting of UNEP and ODI Global in London. For the Netherlands, the main significance lies in the consequences for energy, agriculture, water management and spatial planning: higher global warming increases the challenges the Netherlands must prepare for, while national policy influences international emissions only partly.
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One story, several perspectives
What is established
- UNEP states that the aim of remaining below 1.5 degrees without exceeding it is no longer achievable.
- The report describes a large difference between the emissions reductions required and the reductions resulting from current national climate plans.
- UNEP states that further policy measures can limit the peak of warming and could make a return below 1.5 degrees later this century possible.
Left
Arguments From a left-wing perspective, the climate crisis calls for swift public direction: fossil fuels must be replaced more quickly, companies must be regulated more strictly and the costs of the transition must be distributed fairly across society.
Values Climate justice, protection of vulnerable groups and public responsibility are central.
Consequences 政策 that is too slow increases damage and inequality; substantial investment can also improve energy security, employment and clean air.
Centre
Arguments The institutional approach emphasises workable policy: a mix of standards, pricing, innovation, infrastructure and international agreements, with scope for adjustment if measures produce different results from those expected.
Values Administrative feasibility, predictability, affordability and broad public support.
Consequences A gradual but consistent approach can preserve support, but there is a risk that compromises will allow emissions to fall too slowly.
Right
Arguments This perspective emphasises technological innovation, economic competitiveness and national control. According to this approach, climate policy must above all remain affordable and not drive businesses away.
Values Freedom, market forces, national responsibility and economic continuity.
Consequences Overly strict rules could lead to higher costs, industrial losses and the relocation of emissions to countries with less stringent rules; targeted innovation could, in this view, achieve the same goal more efficiently.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
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The core is based directly on the UNEP report and the announcement of its presentation. The text clearly distinguishes between the established policy gap and uncertain future scenarios.
- confirmed UNEP will present the Emissions Gap Report 2026 on 21 October 2026. — The official UNEP page gives the publication date and the official launch on 21 October. source
- confirmed According to UNEP, it is no longer possible to keep warming below 1.5 degrees without exceeding the threshold. — UNEP summarises the report with the conclusion that the possibility of staying below 1.5 degrees has disappeared. source
- confirmed The national climate plans deliver less emissions reduction than is needed for a return path. — The official report description says the reductions required are much greater than those delivered by the current nationally determined contributions. source
- confirmed Every additional fraction of a degree increases climate risks to ecosystems, health, food and water, among other things. — The UNEP summary and explanation describe increasing risks at higher levels of warming. source
- confirmed UNEP cites existing policy measures that can be applied on a larger scale. — The official report page says that successful climate measures have already delivered real emissions reductions and can be scaled up. source
- confirmed The report will be explained in London during a meeting of UNEP and ODI Global. — The official event page gives the location, date and both organisers. source
Editor's note
It is certain that UNEP will present the Emissions Gap Report 2026 on 21 October 2026 and state in it that keeping to 1.5 degrees without exceeding it is no longer achievable. The precise future temperature depends on new policies; no predictions about this have been presented as established fact.Sources
- Emissions Gap Report 2026 — United Nations Environment Programme
- Emissions Gap Report 2026 launch event — United Nations Environment Programme
- UNEP Warns Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Urgent As Climate Risks Mount — Business Today
More on this in Dutch media
- Trouw — „klimaat opwarming”
- RTL Nieuws — „klimaat opwarming”
- FD — „klimaat opwarming”