Tight poll makes Israeli election unpredictable
Benjamin Netanyahu and challenger Gadi Eisenkot are neck and neck in recent polls, but coalition-building will determine who can govern.
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Tuesday’s Israeli election appears set to produce a contest whose outcome will not be known until the votes have been counted. Polls point to a neck-and-neck race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and challenger Gadi Eisenkot, while no party is on course to win a majority on its own.
Israeli voters do not elect a prime minister directly, but vote for parties competing for the Knesset’s 120 seats. The parties must then form a coalition backed by at least 61 seats. As a result, the party with the most votes can still remain outside government if it cannot find partners.
According to AP, Netanyahu faces Eisenkot, the former chief of the general staff who leads the centrist Yashar! party. Netanyahu is campaigning on his security policies and his relationship with US President Donald Trump. Eisenkot presents himself as an alternative after the wars and crises of recent years.
The election is the first since the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023 and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Netanyahu’s opponents accuse his government of making security and policy mistakes and of failing to set out a clear strategy for the wars. Netanyahu denies political responsibility for them.
The judicial and international dimensions also play a role. Netanyahu is being prosecuted in Israel in a long-running corruption case, allegations he denies. In 2024, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him over suspected war crimes and crimes against humanity; Netanyahu rejects those allegations.
The polls mainly show that the race is wide open, not that the result is already settled. Small parties and parties without a clear preference for either bloc could become decisive after the election. Forming a new government could therefore take weeks.
For the Netherlands and Europe, the result could be relevant because of possible consequences for the war in Gaza, relations with the Palestinians and cooperation with the United States. How Israel deals with international legal cases and regional security could also change, depending on the coalition that emerges.
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One story, several perspectives
What is established
- Israel will hold elections for the Knesset on 27 October.
- Under the rules described, no party has an independent majority of 61 seats.
- Polls point to a close contest between the bloc around Netanyahu and the opposition around Eisenkot.
- The result will determine which coalition can form a government.
Left
Arguments A change of government is needed to take responsibility for the security failures surrounding 7 October and for the course of the wars. A government should give greater weight to international legal norms, the protection of civilians and a political solution with the Palestinians.
Values Human rights, the international rule of law and democratic accountability.
Consequences A new course could improve international cooperation, but could also lead to tensions in Israel with security parties and produce an unstable coalition.
Centre
Arguments The core issue is institutional stability: the next government must manage security, hostages, regional agreements and rule-of-law procedures at the same time. No camp will automatically receive a mandate for every aspect of policy.
Values Continuity, coalition government and administrative practicality.
Consequences A broad coalition could provide support, but compromises could slow decision-making and obscure fundamental differences.
Right
Arguments Israel needs a government that puts security and deterrence at the centre after years of attacks and war. Netanyahu has the experience and international relationships that, according to this view, are needed to confront Hamas, Iran and other threats.
Values National security, sovereignty and political continuity.
Consequences Continuing the current course could support Israel’s security objectives, but, according to critics, increases the risk of further international isolation and escalation.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The text is based on recent AP reporting and an institutional source on Israel’s electoral system. Polls and political consequences are presented as uncertain or possible, not as a settled result.
- confirmed The Israeli election will take place on Tuesday 27 October 2026. — The Israel Democracy Institute lists the election date; AP describes the same date. source
- confirmed Israel elects 120 members of the Knesset and the parties must then form a coalition. — AP describes the electoral system and the absence of a party majority. source
- confirmed Polls point to a close contest between Netanyahu and Eisenkot. — AP writes that polls suggest a neck-and-neck race. source
- confirmed Eisenkot leads the centrist Yashar! party. — AP names Eisenkot as the leader of Yashar!. source
- confirmed The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu in 2024. — AP mentions the arrest warrant and the allegations. source
- uncertain The result could lead to coalition-building lasting weeks. — This is a journalistic inference based on the electoral system and divisions in the polls; the duration is not yet certain. source
Editor's note
The election date, electoral system and the neck-and-neck race described by AP are certain. The final seat distribution, coalition and premiership remain uncertain; polls are not the result.Sources
- A look at major candidates in Israel’s election — AP News
- A look at key parties in Israel’s Oct. 27 election — AP News
- Elections 2026 — Israel Democracy Institute
More on this in Dutch media
- NRC — „israël verkiezingen”
- NU.nl — „israël verkiezingen”
- De Telegraaf — „israël verkiezingen”