Brazilian central bank holds interest rate at 13.75 per cent
The rate decision interrupts a series of cuts as inflation expectations and financial uncertainty rise.
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Brazil’s central bank kept the Selic rate at 13.75 per cent on Wednesday. The decision was unanimous and follows five consecutive rate cuts, according to Reuters and Brazilian public reporting.
The rate decision was taken by the monetary policy committee Copom. The Selic is Brazil’s main policy rate and affects loans, mortgages, business financing and returns on savings and government bonds.
According to Reuters, the bank made clear that uncertainty had increased considerably and left the next step open. The decision therefore gives no firm indication that rates will be raised or cut again in December.
The pause follows a period in which rates were cut by 0.25 percentage points five times in a row. In September, the rate fell to 13.75 per cent. Wednesday’s decision temporarily ends the series of cuts, but does not change the current rate level.
Inflation is an important factor. In the central bank’s Focus survey, published a day before the decision, the market expectation for inflation in 2026 rose to 4.9 per cent. According to the Focus survey, the expectation for the Selic at the end of the year stood at 13.5 per cent, indicating that part of the market still expected a cut.
Financial markets were also under pressure. Agência Brasil reported before the decision that the Brazilian real had weakened and expectations for inflation in 2027 were rising. This could make a rapid further rate cut more difficult, because a weaker currency can make imports more expensive.
For households and businesses, the decision means that credit will remain expensive for now. Savers and investors benefit from the high nominal return, but high interest rates also curb consumption, investment and housing finance. The central bank must therefore anchor inflation expectations without unnecessarily slowing economic activity further.
The Selic is a nominal interest rate: it does not say how much purchasing power an investor retains after inflation. Nor does the current decision settle how the economy will develop; additional figures on inflation, growth, employment and credit are needed for that.
Also show the region and a close-up
Both sides of the figures
▲ Bright spots
- Savers and investors will continue to receive a high nominal interest rate of 13.75 per cent for now.
- The central bank retains room to await new inflation and exchange-rate data.
▼ Concerns
- According to the Focus survey, the market expected 4.9 per cent inflation in 2026, above the inflation target.
- High interest rates make borrowing and investment more expensive and can curb demand.
Critical note
The 13.75 per cent rate is nominal and does not show how much real return remains after inflation. The decision shows the central bank’s policy direction, but does not by itself indicate whether households are financially better off.
Who notices what
- Households
- Loans and housing finance will remain expensive, while savers may receive a high nominal return.
- Businesses
- New investment and working capital will remain relatively costly.
- Investors
- Brazilian fixed-income investments will remain more attractive, but exchange-rate and inflation risks will persist.
- Government
- A high policy rate can increase interest costs on new or variably financed government debt.
Where economists disagree
There is no demonstrable substantive contradiction between the cited sources on the decision itself; the discussion is mainly about the next rate move.
Every point comes from the article’s sources and was included in the fact check.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The Selic stands at 13.75 per cent.
- The Copom decision was unanimous.
- The inflation expectation for 2026 stood at 4.9 per cent in the Focus survey.
- The next rate move has not been determined.
Left
Arguments The central bank must retain room to protect growth, employment and highly indebted households, as long as inflation expectations do not rise further.
Values Purchasing power, employment and protection for vulnerable borrowers.
Consequences Faster rate cuts could support credit and investment, but could weaken the currency and increase inflationary pressure.
Centre
Arguments A pause is institutionally defensible as long as the bank awaits new inflation and exchange-rate data and preserves its independence.
Values Price stability, predictability and the credibility of monetary policy.
Consequences A wait-and-see approach could stabilise expectations, but keeps financing expensive for households and businesses.
Right
Arguments The bank must remain strict while inflation expectations are above target and the currency is under pressure; the loss of purchasing power caused by inflation is more damaging than expensive loans.
Values Monetary discipline, protection of savings and confidence in the currency.
Consequences Prolonged high rates could curb inflation, but weigh on the housing market, business investment and public finances.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The current rate decision and the nominal rate were confirmed by Reuters and Brazilian public sources. The text makes clear that the effects of interest rates and inflation expectations are not the same as realised economic growth.
- confirmed Brazil’s central bank kept the Selic at 13.75 per cent. — Reuters reports the unanimous decision of 4 November 2026. source
- confirmed The decision followed five consecutive rate cuts. — Agência Brasil describes the September cut as the fifth in a row. source
- confirmed The market expectation for inflation in 2026 stood at 4.9 per cent in the Focus survey. — Agência Brasil cites the Focus survey of 3 November. source
- confirmed High interest rates make credit more expensive and can curb consumption and investment. — The central-bank publication describes how high interest rates affect credit and demand. source
Editor's note
The current decision was confirmed by Reuters; the previous rate cut and inflation expectations were checked against publications from Brazil’s central-bank system. The next rate move remains uncertain.Sources
- BC mantém Selic em 13,75% e aponta aumento significativo de incertezas — Reuters via Investing.com
- Mercado eleva projeção para inflação, juros e dólar em 2026 — Agência Brasil
- Comunicado n° 45.963 de 16/9/2026 — Banco Central do Brasil