Climate study: warming could peak at 1.7°C around 2050
Climate Analytics says rapid fossil-fuel phase-out and steep methane cuts are needed to stop further acceleration of warming.
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Global warming could level off at around 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels around 2050, according to new research. The scenario examined combines a rapid phase-out of coal, oil and gas with immediate reductions in methane and other short-lived greenhouse gases.
The study was published on Friday by Climate Analytics, an institute for climate science and policy. The researchers examined how different measures affect the rate of warming, when temperatures could peak and whether a decline might follow. It is a modelling study; the publication is not a measurement of current temperatures, and it is unclear whether the research has been independently peer-reviewed.
According to the researchers, combining a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels with targeted measures against short-lived climate pollutants could slow warming by around 12 per cent in the 2030s. As a result, temperatures could peak at about 1.7°C around the middle of the century. The researchers stress that methane measures cannot replace the phase-out of fossil fuels.
Climate Analytics sees particularly strong potential for rapid gains from methane reductions. According to the report summary, almost 48 per cent of possible methane cuts are in agriculture. Waste and the energy sector also offer opportunities. Climate Analytics says methane remains in the atmosphere for much less time than carbon dioxide, meaning that reducing it can have a relatively rapid effect on the rate of warming. According to the organisation, long-term warming is determined mainly by the accumulation of CO2.
In the most ambitious scenario in the study, land use, other greenhouse gases and carbon removal are also addressed alongside a rapid fossil-fuel phase-out and methane reductions. In that scenario, Climate Analytics says warming peaks at around 1.6°C in the early 2040s and falls to about 1.2°C by 2100. This is a model outcome under a combination of measures, not a prediction that these policies will actually be implemented.
The researchers warn that action in practice is lagging behind the required pace. Climate Analytics says an earlier international pledge, made in 2021, to cut methane emissions by at least 30 per cent by 2030 was signed by 159 countries and the European Union. Climate Analytics says emissions have not fallen effectively since then. The organisation therefore sees the new report mainly as a description of what remains technically and politically possible.
The findings are relevant to the climate summit that begins in Antalya on Monday. The scenarios explore how warming can be limited and reversed even after exceeding 1.5°C. For the Netherlands, this does not represent a direct new measurement or policy decision: the report offers a scenario for global action. The question behind the news is therefore whether governments can introduce the proposed measures quickly enough and distribute them across energy, agriculture, waste and land use.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- On 6 November 2026, Climate Analytics published a modelling study on fossil fuels, methane and other short-lived climate pollutants.
- The study describes scenarios in which warming peaks at around 1.7°C around 2050 or, with a broader package of measures, at around 1.6°C in the early 2040s.
- The researchers say methane reductions cannot replace the phase-out of fossil fuels.
- According to the source, global methane emissions are not currently falling effectively.
Left
Arguments A left-wing approach emphasises that rapid emissions cuts are essential and that governments and major polluters in particular should bear the costs and responsibility. It would place the protection of vulnerable communities and a fair distribution of burdens at the centre alongside climate benefits.
Values Climate justice, public responsibility and protection of future generations.
Consequences A rapid transition could require investment, regulation and support for households and workers, but this approach holds that delay increases social damage and costs.
Centre
Arguments An institutional approach would use the modelling results to support a coherent package: combining a fossil-fuel phase-out with methane policy, innovation, international agreements and workable transition periods.
Values Practical implementation, international cooperation and policies assessed on measurable effects.
Consequences The emphasis is on phased measures with monitoring, with agriculture, energy and waste each receiving a tailored approach.
Right
Arguments A right-wing approach may acknowledge that emissions reductions are necessary, but warn of high costs, loss of competitiveness and excessive prescriptions for farmers and businesses. It would emphasise technology, voluntary innovation and affordability.
Values Economic freedom, national competitiveness and predictable regulation.
Consequences A more gradual path could limit immediate burdens, but from a left-wing perspective it increases the risk that global temperatures will continue rising for longer.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The central claims can be found directly in the Climate Analytics publication and the ANP account of it. The article clearly distinguishes between model scenarios and observations and makes no statement about the likelihood of the scenario becoming reality.
- confirmed Climate Analytics published new research on stopping and reversing warming on 6 November 2026. — The Climate Analytics publication is dated 6 November 2026 and describes the new research. source
- confirmed A rapid fossil-fuel phase-out combined with methane reductions could make warming peak at around 1.7°C around 2050. — This is stated in the Climate Analytics summary. source
- confirmed Targeted reductions in short-lived climate pollutants could slow warming by around 12 per cent in the 2030s. — Climate Analytics explicitly cites this model outcome. source
- confirmed According to the report, almost 48 per cent of possible methane reductions are in agriculture. — This percentage appears in the ANP account of the report. source
- confirmed In the most ambitious scenario, warming peaks at around 1.6°C in the early 2040s and falls to about 1.2°C by 2100. — Climate Analytics gives both figures in its description of the ambitious scenario. source
Editor's note
The publication date, the model outcomes and the measures cited by Climate Analytics are certain. The study describes scenarios rather than observations; the sources cited provide no information about independent peer review or the likelihood that the ambitious scenario will be implemented.Sources
- Phasing out fossil fuels and tackling short-lived climate forcers can halt global warming by 2050 — Climate Analytics
- Rapport: opwarming kan met hard ingrijpen stoppen op 1,7 graden — ANP via ZeelandNet
More on this in Dutch media
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- de Volkskrant — „klimaat opwarming”