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Democrats win Congress, Trump retains control over foreign affairs

The midterm elections weaken Trump’s domestic position, but he retains broad powers in foreign affairs.

From January, the Democrats will control both chambers of the US Congress. President Donald Trump may therefore face greater scrutiny and budgetary pressure, but according to analysts he retains broad powers over foreign policy and military operations.

The Republican Party loses its majority in both chambers in the midterm elections. According to The Associated Press, the Democrats will hold at least 54 of the Senate’s 100 seats next year; depending on counts that have not yet been completed, that number could rise to 56. The Democrats will also gain a majority in the House of Representatives. The precise margins have not yet been established everywhere.

The new balance of power formally takes effect in January. From that point, Democratic committees can launch investigations, organise hearings and exert influence over budget laws and appointments. Senate leader Chuck Schumer has announced that his party will scrutinise Trump’s judicial appointments and other senior appointments more closely.

That does not mean the Democrats can easily reverse Trump’s policies. The president has veto power, and according to Reuters the majorities are not large enough to override a veto. Moreover, the president retains broad powers in foreign policy and military operations. Congress can still counter those powers with funding decisions, oversight and political pressure.

That distinction matters for the international agenda. Reuters writes that Trump will retain broad scope in his second term for decisions on Iran, Israel, Ukraine and China. Democrats want, among other things, to reopen discussions on support for Ukraine and exercise more critical oversight of the US role abroad. They can also try to use budget laws to limit military operations or other policy priorities.

Meanwhile, the White House chief of staff is changing. Trump is replacing chief of staff Susie Wiles with Stephen Miller, a longtime ally who has been closely involved in Trump’s immigration policy. Democratic politicians see the appointment as evidence that Trump is hardening his course; the White House, by contrast, presents the result as a reason to defend his agenda further.

The economic stakes cut across both camps. Reuters reports that the campaign centred heavily on affordability, tariffs, energy costs and inflation. Congress will have more influence over taxes, spending and the debt ceiling, but the president retains direct influence over parts of trade and foreign policy. That is likely to make negotiations more important, without it yet being clear whether they will lead to compromises.

The central question for the next two years is therefore not only whether Trump can implement legislation, but also how far Democrats will dare to use their control. They can use investigations and funding as leverage, while a prolonged budget dispute could also affect the functioning of the federal government. For foreign governments, the question of whether Trump’s domestic weakening leads to restraint or instead to more assertive action outside the United States is significant.

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