Dutch economy remains vulnerable despite growth
Statistics Netherlands sees little improvement in October, with weaker confidence but growth in production and exports.
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The Dutch economic picture was almost as negative in October as in September. According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), eight of the thirteen indicators performed worse than their long-term trend.
The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a summary of a range of economic indicators. The figure therefore does not mean that every household or business is experiencing the same development. CBS stresses that it concerns a macroeconomic picture.
Consumers became slightly more pessimistic in October: seasonally adjusted consumer confidence fell from -33 in September to -34. Producer confidence remained positive, but fell from 4.2 to 2.3. Both figures are balances of positive and negative responses, not growth rates.
Show the figures
| Business cycle indicator | |
|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | -0.40 |
| Feb 2026 | -0.37 |
| Mar 2026 | -0.33 |
| Apr 2026 | -0.33 |
| May 2026 | -0.28 |
| Jun 2026 | -0.23 |
| Jul 2026 | -0.22 |
| Aug 2026 | -0.19 |
| Sep 2026 | -0.16 |
| Oct 2026 | -0.17 |
At the same time, there were also some bright spots. According to CBS, the volume of goods exports was 4.9 per cent higher in August than a year earlier. CBS said industrial production rose by 12 per cent year on year in August and by 3.3 per cent compared with July. CBS called this the largest annual increase in more than four years.
The labour market remained mixed. In September, 408,000 people were unemployed; the unemployment rate remained at 4.0 per cent, unchanged from August. At the end of the third quarter, 375,000 vacancies were open, almost the same as a quarter earlier. The number of hours worked increased by 0.3 per cent that quarter.
The housing market cooled further. Existing homes were on average 2.9 per cent more expensive in September than a year earlier, compared with 3.3 per cent in August. Compared with August, prices fell by 0.4 per cent. The number of bankruptcies also rose by 5 per cent in September compared with August.
CBS calls this its final monthly report on the Business Cycle Tracer; from November onwards, it will no longer be updated. The indicators point in different directions: exports and industry are growing, while confidence is falling and unemployment and bankruptcies are increasing. This does not show how individual households and businesses experience the economy.
Both sides of the figures
▲ Bright spots
- Goods exports were 4.9 per cent higher in August than a year earlier, according to CBS.
- Industrial production rose by 12 per cent year on year in August.
▼ Concerns
- Consumer confidence fell to -34 in October.
- The number of unemployed people rose by an average of 5,000 a month over the past three months.
Critical note
The Business Cycle Tracer is a composite macroeconomic indicator and does not mean that all households, businesses or regions are experiencing the same development. CBS also reports that the series will no longer be updated from November.
Who notices what
- Households
- An almost unchanged negative economic picture says little about individual purchasing power, but the labour market remains mixed, with unemployment at 4.0 per cent.
- Workers
- The number of unemployed people rose by an average of 5,000 a month over the past three months, while vacancies remained almost unchanged.
- Businesses
- Exports and industry grew, but producer confidence fell to 2.3 and the number of bankruptcies increased.
- Government
- The government receives a mixed picture: industrial activity is picking up, while confidence and bankruptcies require attention.
Every point comes from the article’s sources and was included in the fact check.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The key figures and interpretation were checked directly against the CBS monthly report. The article makes clear that the Business Cycle Tracer does not present the same picture for all households and businesses.
- confirmed Eight of the thirteen indicators performed worse than their long-term trend in October. — Stated in the CBS report. source
- confirmed Consumer confidence fell from -33 to -34. — CBS table with seasonally adjusted confidence figures. source
- confirmed Industrial production rose by 12 per cent year on year in August. — CBS reports 12.0 per cent calendar-adjusted growth. source
- confirmed There were 408,000 unemployed people in September and 375,000 vacancies at the end of the third quarter. — Both figures appear in the CBS report. source
Editor's note
The CBS report is the primary source. The indicator is a macroeconomic summary and not a statement about every household or business; CBS is ending this monthly series from November.Sources
More on this in Dutch media
- NOS — „conjunctuur cbs”
- Het Parool — „conjunctuur cbs”
- de Volkskrant — „conjunctuur cbs”