VDe Vector

More than one million Lebanese face food insecurity

A new UN-backed analysis warns that the number of people facing acute food insecurity could rise further.

More than one million people in Lebanon are facing acute food insecurity. According to a new analysis by, among others, UN food agencies, that number could rise to 1.15 million by mid-2027 because of continuing insecurity, economic pressure and weakened livelihoods.

The figures come from the latest analysis by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, an international system that assesses the severity of food insecurity. Lebanon’s Ministry of Agriculture conducted the study in September, with technical support from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the World Food Programme and other partners. The World Food Programme made the results public on Wednesday.

For the period from September 2026 to February 2027, 1.05 million people are classified as being in phase 3 or higher. This means that households can no longer fully maintain their normal means of obtaining food and need to take emergency measures. According to the analysis, around 52,000 people are in phase 4, the category known as ‘Emergency’.

The situation is not the same as a formal famine. The classification does describe severe food insecurity, in which families may, for example, sell possessions, take on debt or cut meals to make ends meet. Conflict areas in the south and poorer areas in the north and east of Lebanon are identified as particularly vulnerable.

The analysis expects the number of people in phase 3 or higher to rise to 1.15 million by mid-2027. At that point, 97,000 people would be in phase 4. The researchers warn that the current, lower estimate than during the peak of the displacement crisis in April should not be read as a sustained recovery. According to the researchers, the improvement is partly linked to changed circumstances surrounding conflict and displacement, while purchasing power and employment remain weak.

The UN food agencies place the figures in the context of a prolonged crisis in Lebanon, involving war, mass displacement and a deep economic downturn. According to the UN food agencies, savings and other buffers have been exhausted in many households. These organisations say limited employment, high levels of debt and expensive basic goods make it harder to absorb a new shock.

For Dutch readers, it is particularly important that this is not a temporary food-aid operation or a single isolated region, but a nationwide analysis of food security. The figures are estimates for a specific period and not a count of people going without food on a particular day. They do show, however, that any recovery in Lebanon remains vulnerable as long as security, incomes and access to markets do not improve.

The central message is therefore twofold: food security is less bad in some respects than during the earlier peak, but remains a serious problem for more than one million people. Without improvements in security, purchasing power and livelihoods, the situation could deteriorate again, according to the analysis.

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