Danish intelligence service sees growing risk of Russian actions
A new threat assessment calls an invasion of a NATO country unlikely, but no longer ruled out.
Denmark’s military intelligence service is warning of a low but growing risk of a limited Russian attack on a NATO country. According to the assessment, Russia is likely to further intensify hybrid pressure on European countries in the coming months.
The warning appears in an unclassified assessment by the Danish Defence Intelligence Service. The service writes that Russia could further intensify its hybrid war against NATO countries and other Western countries while the war in Ukraine continues.
According to the assessment, hybrid actions include sabotage, cyberattacks and activities intended to weaken support for Ukraine. The service says such actions are no longer aimed solely at sowing fear, but also at making military support for Ukraine more difficult.
The Danish service considers a large-scale invasion of a NATO country very unlikely, but says the possibility can no longer be completely ruled out. The service describes the risk of limited military action against one or more NATO countries on Russia’s border as low, but increasing.
The assessment is not a prediction that Russia will attack a specific country soon. According to reports, the head of the service stressed that Denmark does not expect a conventional Russian attack on its own territory. A large-scale military build-up would also require months of preparation and be difficult to conceal.
The warning comes against the backdrop of earlier European concerns about sabotage and cyberattacks. NATO’s secretary-general also said on Thursday that the alliance is prepared for Russian hybrid attacks. At the same time, he urged countries to continue supporting Ukraine if they want to send Russia a clear signal.
For the Netherlands, the assessment is chiefly relevant as part of the broader European security picture. The Danish assessment says nothing specific about threats to the Netherlands or concrete Dutch targets. It does, however, underline that European countries are taking account of pressure below the threshold of open war, such as cyberattacks and sabotage of infrastructure.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- Denmark has published a new threat assessment.
- The service considers Russian hybrid actions more likely than a large-scale invasion.
- The risk of a limited attack is described as low but growing.
- The assessment does not say that Russia will attack a specific NATO country soon.
Left
Arguments Europe should combine military deterrence with diplomacy, conflict management and support for Ukraine. A continuing logic of escalation can intensify security dilemmas and divert resources from social priorities.
Values International law, diplomacy and human security.
Consequences More diplomacy could limit escalation, but too little deterrence could increase vulnerability to Russian pressure.
Centre
Arguments Countries should take the threat seriously without presenting every risk assessment as a prediction. Investing in resilience, cyber security and allied coordination is proportionate as long as decisions are based on intelligence.
Values Caution, an evidence base and collective defence.
Consequences Targeted investment can reduce vulnerabilities without automatically leading to broad military escalation.
Right
Arguments A growing risk calls for higher defence spending, stronger borders and unequivocal support for Ukraine. Deterrence works only if Russia believes an attack would be met with a swift and severe response.
Values National security, deterrence and allied reliability.
Consequences Greater military readiness could deter attacks, but raises costs and could further increase tensions with Russia.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The main claims come from the official Danish threat assessment and an independent summary with additional NATO context. The text explicitly distinguishes between a risk assessment and a concrete prediction.
- confirmed The Danish service sees a low but growing risk of a limited Russian attack on NATO countries. — This appears among the three main conclusions of the official assessment. source
- confirmed An invasion of a NATO country is described as very unlikely, but not ruled out. — The official analysis and the independent reporting both use this formulation. source
- confirmed The assessment mentions hybrid attacks such as sabotage and cyberattacks. — The summary of the assessment describes these forms of pressure. source
- confirmed The Danish service does not expect a conventional Russian attack on Denmark. — This is explicitly attributed to the head of the service. source
Editor's note
The warning is an official Danish threat assessment, not a finding that an attack is imminent. The assessment contains estimates of risk; these are presented as the service’s assessment.Sources
- Vurdering af truslen fra Rusland — Danish Defence Intelligence Service
- Denmark says Russian invasion of NATO country highly unlikely but cannot be ruled out — Euronews
More on this in Dutch media
- NU.nl — „rusland denemarken”
- De Telegraaf — „rusland denemarken”
- AD — „rusland denemarken”