MIVD sees no imminent Russian attack on NATO
The services do warn of preparations and hybrid pressure on European countries.
Russia does not currently appear to be planning to start a large-scale conflict with NATO soon. At the same time, the AIVD and MIVD warn that Moscow is preparing military options and already exerting pressure on European countries through sabotage, cyberattacks and influence operations.
The Dutch intelligence services distinguish between intent and capability. According to a joint threat assessment, Russia currently has no intention of starting a large-scale war with NATO. The services say this does not mean that the country is making no preparations or that a conflict will be impossible in the future.
In its public annual report for 2025, the MIVD wrote that a conventional war between Russia and NATO is virtually ruled out as long as the war in Ukraine continues. At the same time, according to the service, Russia could build up sufficient military strength for a regional conflict within a year of the end of the fighting if circumstances favour Moscow.
The services also point to activities below the threshold of open war. These include espionage, cyber activities, sabotage, influence operations and attempts to cause social unrest. According to the AIVD and MIVD, the Netherlands is an attractive target because of its support for Ukraine, logistical infrastructure and role as a host country for international organisations.
The wording matters because warnings about Russian military capability can easily be read as a prediction of an attack. The intelligence assessment says something about scenarios and risks, not about a firm decision in the Kremlin. It also remains unclear exactly what information underlies the public conclusions.
For Dutch policy, the analysis means that deterrence and resilience will continue to stand side by side. The armed forces, vital companies and government bodies must prepare for sabotage and digital attacks, while diplomatic and military support for Ukraine remains part of broader European security policy.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The AIVD and MIVD see no current Russian intention to wage a major war with NATO.
- The services warn of hybrid activities and future military build-up.
- The MIVD considers a regional conflict after the war in Ukraine conceivable.
Left
Arguments The Netherlands should strengthen its resilience while preventing escalation. Diplomacy, arms control and support for Ukraine should go hand in hand with restraint in military rhetoric.
Values Peace, the international rule of law and democratic oversight of security policy.
Consequences An excessive emphasis on military scenarios could increase tensions and divert public funds from social resilience.
Centre
Arguments The assessment calls for a dual approach: prepare for the worst-case scenario without pretending that war is inevitable. Investing in cyber security, alliances and crisis communication is the obvious course.
Values Precaution, proportionality and institutional reliability.
Consequences Targeted investment increases resilience, but threat assessments remain partly uncertain and cannot predict every incident.
Right
Arguments The absence of a current intention to attack is no reason to sit back. Only credible military deterrence and robust protection against hybrid attacks can prevent Russia from applying further pressure.
Values National security, deterrence and allied solidarity.
Consequences Faster defence investment could reduce risks, but would require higher spending over the long term and could crowd out other policy priorities.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The central contrast between current intent and future capability appears verbatim in the public threat assessments. The text does not present scenarios and warnings as certain predictions.
- confirmed The AIVD and MIVD say that Russia currently has no intention of starting a large-scale war with NATO. — This appears in the joint threat assessment of February 2026. source
- confirmed According to the MIVD, a conventional war with NATO is virtually ruled out as long as Russia is fighting in Ukraine. — This appears in the public annual report for 2025. source
- confirmed Under favourable circumstances, Russia could build up sufficient strength for a regional conflict within a year of the end of the fighting. — This appears in the public MIVD reporting. source
- confirmed The Netherlands is named as a target partly because of its support for Ukraine and its logistical role. — The AIVD describes these factors in the country chapter on Russia. source