Kulbergs wins Latvian election by clear margin
The pro-European prime minister is clearly ahead of his rivals according to preliminary results, but coalition talks are still to come.
Follow-up to: Exit poll predicts victory for Kulbergs in Latvia Saturday, 3 October 2026, 21:01
The party of Latvian prime minister Andris Kulbergs has won the parliamentary election by a wide margin, according to preliminary results. With around 72 per cent of the vote counted, the United List stood at 36.5 per cent, well ahead of the second party.
The result confirms and strengthens the initial exit polls, which already pointed to a clear victory for Kulbergs on Saturday evening. The preliminary figures come from the Latvian election commission and are not yet final. The commission expects to establish the official result by 19 October at the latest.
The populist Latvia First party stood at around 13 per cent according to the partial count. It therefore remained well behind the prime minister’s party. Other parties that appear likely to clear the electoral threshold include the Progressives, the National Alliance and the alliance around Sovereign Power and New Latvians.
Kulbergs has led a government since May that emerged after a political crisis over the handling of suspected Ukrainian drones over Latvia. His United List was part of the opposition before this election and subsequently formed a coalition with, among others, the National Alliance, New Unity and the Union of Greens and Farmers.
The election took place in a country bordering Russia and Belarus and that is a member of the European Union and NATO. Latvia strongly supports Ukraine and is concerned about Russian military pressure and possible hybrid attacks. According to news agency AP, that security context played an important role in the campaign, although the results themselves do not indicate which consideration was decisive for individual voters.
A clear victory gives Kulbergs a stronger starting position in forming a new government, but does not automatically provide a parliamentary majority. The party has already announced that it wants to speak first with the current coalition partners. The precise distribution of seats may also still change while the counting and verification of ballot papers continue.
For the Netherlands, the result is relevant because Latvia is an important eastern border state of the EU and NATO. A government under Kulbergs is expected to continue placing emphasis on support for Ukraine and national security. Which parties ultimately join the coalition and what consequences that has for defence spending and domestic policy have not yet been established.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The party of prime minister Andris Kulbergs is well ahead in the preliminary count.
- The result is not yet final and coalition talks have yet to begin.
- Latvia is an EU and NATO member and lies on the eastern border of both organisations.
- The main political rivals differ over the desired direction for security, the economy and relations with Russia.
Left
Arguments A left-wing approach will emphasise that security should not be understood solely in military terms. Alongside support for Ukraine, investment in public services, social security and regional development is needed so that the burden of security policy does not fall mainly on lower-income groups.
Values Solidarity, social equality, public services and European cooperation.
Consequences A one-sided emphasis on defence spending could increase social tensions; a broader security agenda could strengthen support for the government.
Centre
Arguments The institutional approach emphasises continuity: maintain the pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course, form a stable coalition and wait for the final result before announcing major policy changes.
Values Governmental stability, institutional reliability and feasibility.
Consequences A broad coalition could provide predictability, but would require compromises that could partly dilute Kulbergs’s clear electoral victory.
Right
Arguments A right-wing approach will interpret the result as a mandate for stronger national security, greater defence capacity and tighter control of border protection. It may also call for restraint over new spending that would burden the national budget.
Values National sovereignty, security, responsibility for public funds and order.
Consequences A tougher security policy could make Latvia more resilient, but could complicate cooperation with more moderate coalition partners and divert attention from social problems.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
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The article’s core is supported by the Latvian election commission, LSM and independent reporting by Reuters and AP. All figures are presented as preliminary; the final result and coalition formation are explicitly identified as uncertain.
- confirmed Andris Kulbergs’s party stood at around 36.5 per cent with approximately 72 per cent of the vote counted. — Reuters reported this based on partial results; LSM also reported a lead of more than one-third of the vote. source
- confirmed Latvia First stood at around 13 per cent. — This percentage appears in Reuters’s presentation of the partial result. source
- confirmed The official result will be established by 19 October at the latest. — The Latvian Central Election Commission gives this as the deadline. source
- confirmed Kulbergs has led a coalition government since May following a political crisis over drones. — AP described the change of coalition and the political crisis surrounding suspected Ukrainian drones. source
- confirmed Latvia is a member of the European Union and NATO and borders Russia and Belarus. — The country and security context is described in AP’s reporting. source
- confirmed The United List wants to speak first with the current coalition partners about a new government. — LSM reported that the party announced talks with existing coalition partners. source
Editor's note
The victory and wide lead are based on preliminary results with around 72 per cent of the vote counted. The official result and final distribution of seats are not yet available; the security context was described by AP and Reuters.Sources
- Saskaita divas trešdaļas balsu: 15. Saeimas vēlēšanās triumfē «Apvienotais saraksts» — LSM
- Latvia PM Kulbergs wins election held under shadow of Ukraine war — Reuters via Internazionale
- Latvians vote for a new parliament as fears of Russian hybrid attacks loom — AP
- Vēlēšanu rezultāti — Centrālā vēlēšanu komisija
The story so far
- Saturday, 3 October 2026, 21:01 Exit poll predicts victory for Kulbergs in Latvia
- Sunday, 4 October 2026, 05:55 Kulbergs wins Latvian election by clear margin (this article)
More on this in Dutch media
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