Exit poll predicts victory for Kulbergs in Latvia
The prime minister’s party looks set to become the largest, but will need partners to form a government.
The centrist party of Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs is projected to win the parliamentary elections, according to an exit poll. The result is not yet final, and a new coalition appears necessary.
The exit poll was published on Saturday evening after polling stations in Latvia closed. According to Reuters, Kulbergs’ United List is in the lead. The margin and final number of seats may still change once the official votes have been counted.
Latvia elects 100 members to the Saeima, its unicameral parliament. Parties must win at least 5 per cent of the vote to gain seats. Because several parties are close to that threshold, the distribution of seats may differ from what the initial projection suggests.
Kulbergs became prime minister in May after the previous coalition collapsed. The political crisis followed disagreements over how to handle drones believed to have flown from Ukraine towards Russia and over how Latvia should secure its eastern border.
The elections are therefore strongly focused on security. Latvia borders Russia and Belarus and is a member of both the European Union and NATO. Germany sent four Eurofighter jets to Latvia around the election to temporarily strengthen airspace protection.
Purchasing power is also an important issue. Reuters reports that concerns about the cost of living and the position of the Russian-speaking minority are among the main election topics. Political divisions are fragmented, meaning the winner cannot automatically form the government.
Latvia’s official election commission publishes preliminary results as the count proceeds. The final result will follow later. For the Netherlands, the result is particularly relevant because of security on the eastern border of the EU and NATO and the question of what course Latvia will take towards Russia and Ukraine over the next four years.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The exit poll puts Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ party in first place.
- The official result and distribution of seats are not yet known.
- Latvia lies on the eastern border of the EU and NATO and borders Russia and Belarus.
- A coalition will probably still be necessary.
Left
Arguments A government must link security to social security and protecting purchasing power. A hard security policy must not mean that the Russian-speaking minority or people on low incomes are overlooked.
Values Equality, social protection and European cooperation.
Consequences A one-sided emphasis on defence could increase social tensions; investment in public services could instead strengthen societal resilience.
Centre
Arguments Latvia needs a stable coalition that maintains its NATO course while pursuing practical policies on the economy and the cost of living. Compromises between several parties are likely to be unavoidable.
Values Institutional stability, governability and predictability.
Consequences A broad coalition could bring calm, but may also make decision-making slower.
Right
Arguments The election should primarily lead to a stronger state, better border controls and higher defence spending. A government must clearly distance itself from Moscow and avoid becoming dependent on parties that weaken the national course.
Values National security, order and sovereignty.
Consequences A stronger security policy could increase deterrence, but tensions with Russia and domestic minorities could rise.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The result has been carefully described as an exit poll rather than a definitive election result. The institutional and geopolitical context has been confirmed by AP, Reuters and the Latvian election authorities.
- confirmed Andris Kulbergs’ party is in the lead according to an exit poll. — Reuters reports that United List is ahead according to an exit poll. source
- confirmed Latvia elects 100 members to the Saeima. — AP describes the Saeima as a 100-member parliament. source
- confirmed Parties must win 5 per cent to gain a seat. — AP cites the 5 per cent electoral threshold. source
- confirmed Latvia borders Russia and Belarus and is a member of the EU and NATO. — AP confirms this geographical and institutional context. source
- confirmed Germany sent four Eurofighters to Latvia. — AP reports the temporary reinforcement of Latvian airspace. source
Editor's note
The lead of United List is an exit poll, not an official result. The need for coalition-building, the security context and Latvia’s role within the EU and NATO have been independently confirmed.Sources
- Latvians vote for a new parliament as fears of Russian hybrid attacks loom — Associated Press
- Latvia PM's United List ahead in election, exit poll shows — Reuters via MarketScreener
- 15. Saeimas vēlēšanu rezultāti — Centrale Verkiezingscommissie van Letland
- Rezultāti / 15. Saeimas vēlēšanas — LSM