Bolsonaro camp gains ground in Brazil’s Senate
The shift in power could prove decisive for relations between the next government and Brazil’s Supreme Court.
Follow-up to: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula advance to Brazil’s second round Monday, 5 October 2026, 00:10
The political camp surrounding the Bolsonaro family won many seats in Brazil’s Senate elections. As a result, the winner of the presidential election on 25 October will face a more conservative parliament.
In Sunday’s elections, 54 of the 81 Senate seats were contested. According to Brazil’s electoral authority, two-thirds of the Senate is being renewed; the senators elected will serve eight-year terms. Jair Bolsonaro’s Partido Liberal is expected to hold 28 seats from February 2027, according to UOL, compared with 15 now.
The broader Bolsonaro-aligned camp and its allies are expected to hold at least 44 senators, according to the same calculation. That is more than the 41 votes needed for a simple majority in the Senate. The group could therefore help elect the Senate president and exert influence over ordinary legislation.
Brazil’s Senate also has a special role in relation to the Supremo Tribunal Federal, the country’s highest court. Only the Senate can initiate and rule on impeachment proceedings against a justice of the court. Under the constitution, impeachment requires a two-thirds majority: 54 of the 81 votes.
The new balance of power is therefore not yet enough to remove a justice independently. According to UOL, fourteen senators are not openly Bolsonaro-aligned. Their support would be needed for impeachment proceedings. For years, the Bolsonaro-aligned camp has directed most of its criticism at justice Alexandre de Moraes.
The result is also important for the second round between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula. If Flávio wins, he can count on a Senate closer to his political camp. If Lula wins, he will probably have to negotiate intensively with centrist and right-wing parties over appointments to the Supreme Court and legislation.
The result does not therefore directly change the powers of the court or the president. It does, however, shift the political landscape. The Senate president, who will be elected in February 2027, will have influence over the handling of impeachment requests. Whether those requests are actually considered will therefore depend not only on the number of Bolsonaro-aligned senators, but also on coalition-building.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The Bolsonaro-aligned camp is growing in the Senate.
- A simple majority is within reach, but removing a justice requires 54 votes.
- The second round is between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
- The Senate president will have influence over the handling of impeachment requests.
Left
Arguments A strong Senate must not become a tool for putting judges under political pressure after they have held powerful politicians to account.
Values An independent judiciary, the democratic rule of law and the protection of fundamental rights.
Consequences Political impeachment proceedings could weaken legal protection and deepen polarisation.
Centre
Arguments Parliament must be able to oversee judges, but only through clear procedures, compelling evidence and broad political support.
Values Checks and balances, institutional legitimacy and procedural rigour.
Consequences An institutional compromise could improve oversight without making the court dependent on temporary majorities.
Right
Arguments The Supreme Court has gained too much political influence in recent years. A stronger Senate should be able to correct judges when they go beyond their legal role.
Values Popular sovereignty, parliamentary oversight and judicial restraint.
Consequences Greater parliamentary oversight could limit the concentration of power in the court, but an escalation could undermine judicial independence.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The figures and institutional powers can be checked through Brazilian electoral information and independent reporting. Possible consequences for Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro are presented as scenarios.
- confirmed In the elections, 54 of the 81 Senate seats were renewed. — Reported by Brazil’s electoral authority. source
- confirmed Partido Liberal will have 28 senators from 2027. — Reported by UOL and El País. source
- confirmed A simple majority in the Senate requires 41 votes. — Based on 81 senators and explained by UOL. source
- confirmed Removing a justice of the Supreme Court requires 54 votes. — The two-thirds majority is described by UOL. source
Editor's note
The seat distribution and constitutional thresholds are based on UOL, TSE and El País. The consequences for the second round are scenarios, not predictions.Sources
- Senado: Bolsonaristas ficam a poucos votos de poder cassar ministros do STF — UOL
- CDE 2026 — Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
- El bolsonarismo se refuerza en el Senado y pone al Supremo en la mira — El País América
The story so far
- Saturday, 3 October 2026, 17:01 Brazilians choose between Lula and Bolsonaro tomorrow
- Sunday, 4 October 2026, 18:59 Brazil chooses president in closely fought election
- Monday, 5 October 2026, 00:10 Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula advance to Brazil’s second round
- Monday, 5 October 2026, 06:13 Bolsonaro camp gains ground in Brazil’s Senate (this article)
More on this in Dutch media
- NOS — „brazilië senaat”
- Het Parool — „brazilië senaat”
- Trouw — „brazilië senaat”