Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula advance to Brazil’s second round
With 47.26 per cent of votes counted, Flávio Bolsonaro leads incumbent president Lula, but neither is above 50 per cent.
Follow-up to: Brazil chooses president in closely fought election Sunday, 4 October 2026, 18:59
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Brazil is heading for a second round between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. In the preliminary count, Bolsonaro has a clear lead, but the result is not yet final.
With 47.26 per cent of votes counted in the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro is on 50.20 per cent of the valid votes, compared with 41.63 per cent for Lula. That amounts to 27.5 million and 22.8 million votes respectively, according to Correio 24 Horas’s live count.
As no candidate is currently receiving more than half of the valid votes, a second round appears likely. Brazil’s electoral authority TSE has scheduled it for 25 October if no candidate secures a majority in the first round.
The percentages are a snapshot. The TSE directs voters and media to a live portal for the official tally, so the standings may still change while not all votes have been processed. Bolsonaro’s current lead is therefore not yet a definitive election victory.
A great deal is at stake for Brazil. The country is Latin America’s largest economy and contains a large part of the Amazon region. Voters’ choice could affect social policy, the approach to crime, rainforest protection and relations with the United States and China.
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He is campaigning for the presidency for the first time and is trying to bring the political movement surrounding his family name back to power. Lula, aged 80, is the incumbent president and is running in his seventh presidential election.
The first round featured twelve registered presidential candidates. Candidates finishing outside the top two are now eliminated; their voters and the political parties supporting them will therefore be important in forming a majority in the second round.
The preliminary result above all confirms how strongly the election is organised around two political camps. For people in the Netherlands, the development is relevant because of Brazil’s size, the country’s influence on climate and trade issues and the possible change in regional power relations.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- With 47.26 per cent of votes counted, Flávio Bolsonaro is on 50.20 per cent and Lula on 41.63 per cent of the valid votes.
- The TSE has set 25 October as the date for a possible second round.
- Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro; Lula is the incumbent president.
- There were twelve registered presidential candidates.
Left
Arguments A left-wing approach emphasises the protection of social programmes, democratic institutions and the Amazon region. It sees a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro as a risk that the country will take a more conservative course and roll back environmental policy.
Values Equality, public services, social protection, the democratic rule of law and climate policy.
Consequences From this perspective, a left-wing government would offer greater continuity for social and environmental policy; a right-wing course could lead to less protection and greater social polarisation.
Centre
Arguments The institutional approach emphasises a verifiable count, governability and compromises after the second round. Neither camp can count on a stable political majority without broader support.
Values Legal certainty, feasibility, predictability and cooperation.
Consequences The second round could produce a clearer mandate, but negotiations with parties and voters outside the two main blocs will remain necessary.
Right
Arguments A right-wing approach emphasises change, public safety, national autonomy and a less interventionist state. It sees Flávio Bolsonaro as a means of breaking Lula’s political bloc’s hold on power.
Values Order, security, economic freedom, family values and national sovereignty.
Consequences A Bolsonaro victory could bring a clear change of direction in domestic and foreign policy, but could also further sharpen the existing political divide.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The preliminary percentages and the number of votes counted were checked against Correio 24 Horas’s live count. The election rules, the date of a possible second round and the candidates’ backgrounds were confirmed by the TSE and AP.
- confirmed With 47.26 per cent of votes counted, Flávio Bolsonaro is on 50.20 per cent and Lula on 41.63 per cent of the valid votes. — Live count by Correio 24 Horas, updated on 4 October 2026. source
- confirmed A second round is scheduled for 25 October if no candidate secures a majority. — The TSE lists 25 October as the date for a possible second round. source
- confirmed The official results are published via a live portal run by the TSE. — The TSE refers to the official results portal for the real-time tally. source
- confirmed Twelve candidates took part in the presidential election. — The TSE reports twelve registered presidential candidacies for 2026. source
- confirmed Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. — This background is included in AP’s reporting on the election. source
- confirmed Lula is the incumbent president and is running in his seventh presidential election. — AP describes Lula as the incumbent president and mentions his seventh presidential election. source
Editor's note
The standings are not final. The TSE confirms the official live tally and the date of a possible second round; the exact percentages come from an independent live count by Correio 24 Horas.Sources
- Apuração 2026: Presidente – Eleições 2026 — Correio 24 Horas
- Divulgação dos resultados das Eleições 2026 — Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
- The Latest: Brazilians vote in presidential election dominated by Lula and Bolsonaro — The Associated Press
The story so far
- Saturday, 3 October 2026, 17:01 Brazilians choose between Lula and Bolsonaro tomorrow
- Sunday, 4 October 2026, 18:59 Brazil chooses president in closely fought election
- Monday, 5 October 2026, 00:10 Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula advance to Brazil’s second round (this article)
More on this in Dutch media
- NRC — „brazilië verkiezingen”
- NU.nl — „brazilië verkiezingen”
- De Telegraaf — „brazilië verkiezingen”