Skin cancer to become the most common cancer by 2045
IKNL expects over 40 per cent more diagnoses in twenty years, partly due to an ageing population, population growth and UV exposure.
There is news on this story (Wednesday, 7 October 2026, 05:35): Cancer diagnoses to rise to nearly 170,000 by 2045
According to a new projection by IKNL, skin cancer will be the most common type of cancer among men and women by 2045. The institute expects the number of skin cancer diagnoses in the Netherlands to increase by more than 40 per cent over the next twenty years when basal cell carcinoma is included.
The projection is based on data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and population figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS). It is a modelled projection, not a measurement of what has already happened. IKNL uses 2024 as an important baseline and looks ahead to 2045.
For all types of cancer combined, IKNL expects an increase from almost 136,000 new diagnoses in 2024 to almost 170,000 in 2045: a rise of 23 per cent. The main explanation is population growth and ageing. Cancer is more common at older ages, meaning that an ageing population automatically leads to more diagnoses.
The projection does not mean that the individual risk will rise equally for everyone. IKNL expects the risk of cancer, adjusted for age and population structure, to remain roughly unchanged over the next twenty years. According to the institute, a small part of the increase is also due to better or earlier diagnosis, meaning that tumours are found that may not previously have been recorded.
Alongside demographic factors, long-term exposure to UV radiation also plays a role in skin cancer. IKNL lists the sun and sunbeds, as well as smoking, alcohol consumption, lack of exercise and being overweight, among factors that influence the development of cancer. The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) states that UV radiation can cause skin cancer and that the amount of UV radiation reaching the Netherlands has increased in recent decades.
The precise percentage depends on the definition used. Basal cell carcinoma is often not included in general cancer statistics because this form rarely leads to death. In IKNL’s specific skin cancer projection, basal cell carcinoma is calculated separately; including this form, the institute refers to growth of more than 40 per cent over twenty years.
The current figures already show the scale of demand for care. According to VZinfo, skin cancer was the most commonly diagnosed form of cancer in 2025, with 26,200 new cases in a count that does not include basal cell carcinoma. These figures are provisional and, because of the different definition, are not directly comparable with IKNL’s broader projection.
The expectation will increase pressure on prevention, general practice, dermatology and the registration of skin tumours. The projection says nothing about the treatment or personal risk of an individual reader, but is intended to support the long-term planning of policy and healthcare capacity.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- IKNL expects strong growth in the number of skin cancer diagnoses towards 2045.
- The projection is based on registries and population models, not on a direct measurement of the future.
- According to the sources, ageing, population growth, UV exposure and diagnostics play different roles.
Left
Arguments The increase calls for collective prevention: better protection against UV radiation in schools and workplaces, stricter rules for sunbeds and easy access to care.
Values Equal access to healthcare and prevention, and protection for people who cannot fully control their exposure themselves.
Consequences Without public measures, health inequalities and pressure on healthcare could increase further.
Centre
Arguments Combine targeted prevention with a realistic expansion of general practice, dermatology and registration. New measures should demonstrably be effective and take account of different forms of skin cancer.
Values Evidence-based policy, feasibility and a balance between individual responsibility and public healthcare.
Consequences A phased approach can prepare healthcare services without wasting resources on measures whose impact is uncertain.
Right
Arguments The government should primarily provide information and ensure that healthcare capacity is in order; adults should take responsibility themselves for their sun and sunbed behaviour.
Values Personal freedom, individual responsibility and restraint regarding new rules and collective costs.
Consequences Tighter regulation could become patronising or expensive, while the greatest demand for care may be caused mainly by population ageing.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The article’s central point is directly based on IKNL’s projection and is supplemented by current figures from VZinfo and health information from RIVM. The text clearly distinguishes between measured figures, definitions and modelled projections.
- confirmed IKNL expects the number of new cancer diagnoses to rise from almost 136,000 in 2024 to almost 170,000 in 2045. — This is stated in IKNL’s projection. source
- confirmed According to IKNL, the total increase in the number of cancer diagnoses is 23 per cent. — IKNL explicitly gives this increase for the period 2024–2045. source
- confirmed According to the projection, skin cancer will be the most common type of cancer among men and women. — This is a conclusion of IKNL’s projection. source
- confirmed According to IKNL, the number of skin cancer diagnoses, including basal cell carcinoma, will increase by more than 40 per cent. — IKNL explicitly gives this percentage and explains the definition. source
- confirmed In 2025, skin cancer was the most commonly diagnosed form of cancer, with 26,200 new cases, excluding basal cell carcinoma. — VZinfo gives this as a provisional figure from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. source
- confirmed UV radiation can cause skin cancer. — This is stated by RIVM. source
Editor's note
It is certain that IKNL expects a modelled increase of more than 40 per cent when basal cell carcinoma is included, and that skin cancer will become the most common type of cancer towards 2045. It remains a projection; percentages vary depending on the definition of skin cancer.Sources
- Kanker in 2045: verwachting voor incidentie en sterfte — Integraal Kankercentrum Nederland
- Kanker: leeftijd en geslacht — Volksgezondheid en Zorg
- UV — RIVM
The story so far
- Wednesday, 7 October 2026, 03:36 Skin cancer to become the most common cancer by 2045 (this article)
- Wednesday, 7 October 2026, 05:35 Cancer diagnoses to rise to nearly 170,000 by 2045
More on this in Dutch media
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- De Telegraaf — „huidkanker kanker”