Cancer diagnoses to rise to nearly 170,000 by 2045
A new outlook also expects more deaths, mainly because of an ageing and growing population.
Follow-up to: Skin cancer to become the most common cancer by 2045 Wednesday, 7 October 2026, 03:36
The annual number of new cancer diagnoses in the Netherlands will rise by 23 per cent over the next twenty years, according to an outlook by the Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (IKNL). By 2045, nearly 170,000 diagnoses are expected, compared with 136,000 in 2024. The number of deaths from cancer is also expected to increase.
The estimate follows earlier figures on skin cancer but looks at cancer as a whole. IKNL expects the number of diagnoses to rise for almost all types of cancer. Stomach cancer is an important exception: the number of diagnoses is expected to fall among both men and women. Among men, the number of lung cancer diagnoses and tumours whose original site remains unknown will also decline.
The rise does not mean that the risk for an individual person in the Netherlands will increase to the same extent. IKNL expects the risk adjusted for age and population composition to remain roughly unchanged over the next twenty years. The total number of diagnoses is growing mainly because the Netherlands has more inhabitants and the proportion of older people is increasing. Cancer is relatively common at older ages.
According to IKNL, around 136,000 diagnoses were recorded in 2024. For 2045, the estimate is nearly 170,000, or more than 450 diagnoses a day. The number of people dying from cancer each year is expected to rise from more than 46,000 in 2024 to more than 57,000 in 2045. These are absolute numbers; the personal risk of dying may fall at the same time.
The increase is not the same for every type of cancer. According to IKNL, skin cancer, including basal cell carcinoma, will increase by more than 40 per cent over the next twenty years. The estimate also projects an increase in the number of liver and thyroid cancer diagnoses. Among men, the number of lung cancer diagnoses is falling because fewer people smoke, while the absolute number of diagnoses among women is still increasing.
The growing numbers are accompanied by improved survival. According to IKNL figures, relative five-year survival rose from 48.2 per cent among people diagnosed between 1990 and 1994 to 70.8 per cent among those diagnosed in 2020–2024. Better treatments, earlier detection and population screening all play a role. IKNL does warn that earlier diagnosis can extend survival on paper without someone actually living longer.
The outlook is based on data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry up to and including 2024 and population projections by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) up to and including 2045. These are model-based expectations, not fixed predictions. Changes in lifestyle, screening, treatments and the composition of the population may affect the outcome. The figures are particularly relevant to planning for staff, capacity, prevention and appropriate care.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- IKNL expects nearly 170,000 new cancer diagnoses in 2045, compared with around 136,000 in 2024.
- The expected number of deaths will rise to more than 57,000 in 2045, while the age-adjusted risk of dying is expected to fall further.
- The main demographic explanation is population growth and ageing.
- Five-year survival has improved sharply over the past thirty years, but varies greatly by type and stage of cancer.
Left
Arguments Invest heavily in public prevention, population screening and accessible care. Prevention should not be primarily an individual responsibility, because income, living environment and health inequalities partly determine the risks people face.
Values Solidarity, equal access and protection of vulnerable groups.
Consequences More public investment and regulation may limit demand for care in the long term, but require additional money and capacity now.
Centre
Arguments Use the estimate mainly to plan staffing and oncology capacity in good time and organise appropriate care. Combine prevention with better diagnosis and treatment, without pretending that the number of future diagnoses or deaths can be predicted precisely.
Values Reliable figures, practicality and continuity of institutions.
Consequences A phased approach can prevent overloading, but requires long-term decisions about training, budgets and regional distribution.
Right
Arguments Alongside public prevention, emphasise personal responsibility, technological innovation and room for healthcare providers and researchers. Policy should prevent broad restrictions or costly expansion of the healthcare system from automatically becoming the only answers.
Values Individual freedom of choice, innovation, efficiency and limited government intervention.
Consequences More room for innovation may improve treatments, but without strong public safeguards, differences in access and outcomes may increase.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The key figures on diagnoses, mortality, survival and demographics can be found directly at IKNL and RIVM. The text clearly distinguishes between measured figures and model-based estimates.
- confirmed According to IKNL, the annual number of new cancer diagnoses will increase by 23 per cent by 2045, to nearly 170,000. — This is stated in the IKNL outlook. source
- confirmed The number of deaths from cancer is expected to rise from more than 46,000 in 2024 to more than 57,000 in 2045. — IKNL gives these figures as part of the same estimate. source
- confirmed The increase is mainly explained by population growth and ageing. — IKNL cites growth and double ageing as the main explanation. source
- confirmed Around 134,800 new cancer diagnoses were recorded in 2025. — RIVM lists this as a provisional figure from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. source
- confirmed Relative five-year survival rose from 48.2 per cent to 70.8 per cent. — This comparison for the diagnosis periods 1990–1994 and 2020–2024 appears at RIVM, based on IKNL. source
- confirmed Skin cancer will increase by more than 40 per cent over the next twenty years. — This percentage appears in the IKNL outlook and explicitly includes basal cell carcinoma. source
- confirmed The estimate uses NKR data up to and including 2024 and CBS population projections up to and including 2045. — IKNL describes these data sources and periods on its methodological page. source
Editor's note
The current figures and the estimate are based on the Netherlands Cancer Registry, CBS population projections and RIVM overviews. The figures for 2045 are model-based expectations; future developments in lifestyle, diagnostics, treatments and population composition remain uncertain.Sources
- Kanker in 2045: verwachting voor incidentie en sterfte — Integraal Kankercentrum Nederland
- Kanker: leeftijd en geslacht — Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu
- Kanker: overleving — Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu
- Kanker: sterfte — Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu
The story so far
- Wednesday, 7 October 2026, 03:36 Skin cancer to become the most common cancer by 2045
- Wednesday, 7 October 2026, 05:35 Cancer diagnoses to rise to nearly 170,000 by 2045 (this article)
More on this in Dutch media
- de Volkskrant — „kanker vergrijzing”
- RTL Nieuws — „kanker vergrijzing”
- NOS — „kanker vergrijzing”