UWV expects more WIA entrants due to mental health problems
The number of new WIA benefits rose more slowly in 2025, but UWV forecasts another sharp increase for 2026.
UWV expects inflow into the WIA disability benefit scheme to rise more sharply this year. According to the implementing agency, part of that increase is linked to a further rise in applications due to mental health problems.
According to the latest UWV Knowledge Report, WIA inflow grew by 2,300 benefits in 2025, to 71,300. For 2026, UWV expects an increase of 9,600, to 80,900. This estimate is based on several factors and cannot be attributed entirely to mental health problems.
UWV expects 4,600 additional applications, 1,100 additional awards due to the reintroduction of a measure for over-60s and 3,900 additional advances. These advances may later be rejected and therefore create an administrative distortion in the inflow figures.
Sickness absence also increased. The number of sickness notifications rose by 6 per cent in 2025, to 432,000. For 2026, UWV forecasts 452,600 sickness notifications. The organisation warns that the precise trend will continue to depend on the labour market and the implementation of the schemes.
Figures from RIVM show that mental health problems account for a significant share of long-term sickness absence. In the available data for 2023, 34 per cent of long-term absence among working men and 47.5 per cent among working women was attributed to mental health problems.
RIVM counts absence lasting from 42 days up to two years as long-term absence. The figures do not mean that every employee with mental health problems becomes disabled. The categories used also comprise a broad collection of complaints and diagnoses.
The development is important for employees, employers and UWV. More applications increase pressure on assessment and support. UWV identifies no single cause as decisive; according to the organisation, demographics, policy, the labour market and changing causes of illness all play a role together.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- UWV expects higher WIA inflow in 2026.
- Mental health problems are a significant category within long-term sickness absence.
- Some of the expected growth has administrative causes.
Left
Arguments The emphasis should be on prevention, good working conditions and accessible care. Employees should not be treated as a cost item when workload or insecurity harms their health.
Values Health, employee protection and collective responsibility.
Consequences Greater investment in support and job security could limit absence, but would initially require additional public and private resources.
Centre
Arguments Attention is needed both for health and for a workable system. Policy choices should be based on better data about causes, age, occupation and the duration of absence.
Values Evidence-based policy, workability and tailored solutions.
Consequences Better information could lead to more targeted support, but research and reforms take time.
Right
Arguments Where possible, the system should guide people back into work and prevent temporary problems from automatically becoming long-term benefits. Employers and employees both have responsibilities.
Values Labour participation, individual responsibility and affordability.
Consequences Stronger incentives could accelerate reintegration, but could also put pressure on people who are not yet able to cope with work.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The figures on WIA inflow, sickness notifications and sickness absence due to mental health problems come directly from UWV and RIVM. The text distinguishes between actual figures, forecasts and earlier reporting years.
- confirmed WIA inflow rose by 2,300 to 71,300 in 2025. — This is stated in the UWV Knowledge Report. source
- confirmed UWV expects WIA inflow to reach 80,900 in 2026. — UWV explicitly gives this estimate. source
- confirmed The number of sickness notifications rose by 6 per cent to 432,000 in 2025. — This figure appears in the UWV publication. source
- confirmed In 2023, 34 per cent of long-term absence among men and 47.5 per cent among women was attributed to mental health problems. — The percentages and reporting year appear on the RIVM indicator. source
Editor's note
The UWV estimate is a forecast, not an actual figure. The RIVM percentages concern 2023 and should not be read as a current forecast for individual employees.Sources
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