German wine harvest threatens to be smallest since 2010
Drought and heat have made the grapes smaller, but growers say quality could be high.
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German winegrowers are expecting a very small harvest in 2026. An initial estimate by the Deutsches Weininstitut is around 20 per cent below the average of the past ten years, while another current estimate puts it at 8 million hectolitres.
The Deutsches Weininstitut (DWI) reported on Monday that Germany’s wine must harvest is expected to be around 20 per cent below the ten-year average of 8.7 million hectolitres. That would amount to approximately 7 million hectolitres. The institute warned, however, that not all wine-growing regions have yet submitted final estimates.
A current Reuters report, based on figures from the German statistics office, puts the figure at 8 million hectolitres. According to that estimate, this is 4 per cent below the average for 2020 to 2025. The differences are probably related to the timing of the measurements and the reference period used. Final harvest figures are not yet available.
Both sources point in the same direction: the harvest will be smaller than usual. The DWI says the summer was exceptionally dry and sunny. Water shortages left many grapes smaller, reducing yields per hectare. The effects vary greatly according to the region, soil and age of the vines.
According to the DWI, older vines fared relatively better. Their roots reach deeper, allowing them to retain access to moisture for longer. Younger vineyards and plots on light soils suffered more from water shortages. Where possible, growers provided additional irrigation.
A small harvest does not automatically mean poor wine. The drought may give grapes a higher concentration of components. The DWI therefore expects it could be a good year in terms of quality, but stresses that quality and quantity are not the same. This quality forecast also remains provisional while the full harvest has yet to be processed.
The figures are primarily a measure of the effects of the weather in 2026. On their own, they do not prove what proportion can be directly attributed to climate change. Water stress does, however, fit a broader trend to which winegrowers are adapting: different grape varieties, soil management and techniques to retain water for longer.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- According to preliminary estimates, Germany’s wine harvest will be smaller than usual.
- Drought and heat have affected yields.
- The precise harvest volume and the final quality remain uncertain.
Left
Arguments The harvest shows that agriculture must not only adapt to climate risks, but that emissions reductions and support for vulnerable growers are also needed at the same time.
Values Climate justice, public responsibility and protecting livelihoods.
Consequences Greater support and stricter climate measures cost public money, but could make regional agriculture and food chains more stable.
Centre
Arguments Policy should combine practical adaptation with reliable measurements: water management, research into varieties and targeted assistance where risks are demonstrably increasing.
Values Efficiency, evidence and administrative feasibility.
Consequences A gradual approach limits damage without immediately treating every poor harvest as a structural climate crisis.
Right
Arguments Growers primarily need room to invest in irrigation, soil management and new varieties themselves, without an excess of regulation.
Values Entrepreneurship, property rights and economic freedom.
Consequences Fewer regulations could speed up innovation, but without public safeguards small businesses may not be able to bear the investments.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The text presents both current estimates and makes clear that the figures are provisional. Causes and expectations about quality are attributed directly to the DWI.
- confirmed The DWI expects a harvest approximately 20 per cent below the ten-year average. — This is stated in the preliminary estimate by the Deutsches Weininstitut. source
- confirmed Another current estimate puts the figure at 8 million hectolitres. — Reuters reports this based on the German statistics office. source
- confirmed Drought and heat made the grapes smaller. — The DWI and Reuters cite water shortages and heat as explanations. source
- confirmed Final harvest figures are not yet available. — The DWI writes that not all wine-growing regions have yet submitted final estimates. source
Editor's note
The direction of the trend is clear, but the precise volume remains provisional. The DWI and the estimate via Destatis/Reuters use different references and therefore arrive at different outcomes.Sources
- Winzer erwarten weniger Wein — Deutsches Weininstitut
- Hitze und Trockenheit belasten deutsche Weinernte – Gute Qualität erwartet — Reuters via Onvista
More on this in Dutch media
- De Telegraaf — „wijn duitsland”
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- RTL Nieuws — „wijn duitsland”