South Africa warns of very strong El Niño
The government fears pressure on water and agriculture, but weather forecasts remain statements of probability.
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South African Agriculture Minister Willie Aucamp is warning of a very strong El Niño in the coming summer. The official seasonal forecast indicates a greater likelihood of less rain and higher temperatures, but a dry summer is not certain.
Aucamp called on Thursday for early measures to address possible drought and water shortages. According to Daily Maverick, he wants authorities to avoid waiting until reservoirs and farms are already under severe pressure. Areas that depend on rainfall could be particularly vulnerable if rainfall falls short.
The South African Weather Service, SAWS, expects below-normal rainfall across large parts of the country from October to December 2026. It also considers higher temperatures likely. The service sees a similar pattern for November to January, but stresses that El Niño does not always lead to drought.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon in which changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean affect global air currents. In southern Africa, the phenomenon is often associated with an increased likelihood of warmer and drier conditions. This is a statistical probability, not a prediction that every location will experience the same conditions.
The starting position is not poor everywhere. According to Mail & Guardian, the major dams were, on average, much fuller in early October than in the run-up to the severe drought of 2015 and 2016. Soil moisture had also improved following rain in the preceding months. This provides a buffer, but does not remove the risk to rain-dependent crops and livestock.
The government points to possible consequences for water use, agricultural production, food security and wildfires. Municipalities can impose water restrictions when local supplies come under pressure. Such decisions depend on current measurements, regional rainfall and changes in water consumption.
For the Netherlands, the warning is primarily relevant as part of the global food and climate chain. A disappointing harvest in a major agricultural region can affect markets, but it is too early to infer specific price increases for Dutch consumers from this. New measurements and short-term forecasts will therefore be particularly important in the coming months.
Also show the region and a close-up
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The agriculture minister is calling for preparations for water shortages.
- The seasonal forecast indicates an increased likelihood of less rain and higher temperatures.
- Water levels and soil moisture are currently better than before the drought of 2015 and 2016.
Left
Arguments Water is an essential public service and must be protected against waste and inequality. The government must support agriculture, households and vulnerable communities before scarcity strikes.
Values Climate justice, public services and protection of vulnerable groups.
Consequences Early restrictions and investment can limit damage, but require sacrifices from water-intensive businesses and higher public spending.
Centre
Arguments Policy must be based on current measurements and regional forecasts. Preparation is sensible, but blanket restrictions are only proportionate when local data warrant them.
Values Scientific caution, efficiency and balance.
Consequences Phased measures prevent panic and waste, but may come too late if conditions deteriorate rapidly.
Right
Arguments Farmers and businesses must retain the freedom to manage their own risks. The government should primarily provide permits, infrastructure and clear rules, and exercise restraint in imposing broad restrictions.
Values Ownership, economic freedom and responsibility.
Consequences Greater freedom can protect production and investment, but leaves businesses and households bearing greater risks if the drought proves more severe.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The ministerial warning, the official seasonal forecast and the current water buffer have been confirmed by several freely accessible sources. The article clearly distinguishes between a model-based probability and a certain weather outcome.
- confirmed The South African agriculture minister warned on 15 October of a very strong El Niño. — Confirmed by Daily Maverick. source
- confirmed SAWS expects less rain and higher temperatures across large parts of South Africa from October to December. — Confirmed in the summary of the SAWS forecast. source
- confirmed El Niño makes drought more likely, but does not always cause drought. — An explicit qualification in the official weather information. source
- confirmed Dam levels in early October were better than in the run-up to the drought of 2015 and 2016. — Mentioned by Mail & Guardian. source
Editor's note
The warning and seasonal forecast have been confirmed. The extent of any drought, agricultural damage and effects on food prices remains uncertain.Sources
- ‘Agriculture minister sounds El Niño warning’ — Daily Maverick
- SAWS warns of very strong El Niño and hotter, drier spring conditions — SAnews
- Agriculture on El Nino weather climate — South African Government
- SA farmers better placed to face El Niño, but risks remain — Mail & Guardian
More on this in Dutch media
- NRC — „el niño”
- NOS — „el niño”
- Het Parool — „el niño”