IEA expects diesel shortage to persist well into 2027
Global diesel stocks have fallen sharply as disruption in Russia and the Middle East continues to take its toll.
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The global diesel market will remain tight well into 2027, according to the International Energy Agency. The organisation expects stocks lost this year will probably not be replenished until the second half of 2027.
The International Energy Agency published its Oil Market Report for October on Wednesday. According to the report, supplies of gas oil and diesel will fall short of demand in the fourth quarter of 2026, despite an expected rise in refinery output towards the end of the year.
The IEA cites disruption to exports from the Middle East and Russia as a major cause. Lower product exports from Asia and refinery maintenance work are also limiting supply. In September, global diesel exports were 700,000 barrels per day lower than a year earlier, according to the report.
The organisation writes that stocks fell sharply in the first nine months of the year. Globally visible oil stocks stood 509 million barrels below the level before the wars that disrupted the market at the end of September. Onshore stocks in particular are low, according to the IEA.
The pressure is already visible in prices. According to the IEA, wholesale diesel prices in Europe and the United States reached around 220 dollars per barrel in September. Prices have since fallen slightly, but remain far higher than before the crisis and nearly twice as high as the price of crude oil.
For European businesses, diesel feeds through into several cost items. Hauliers are paying more for fuel, while agriculture, construction, industry and distribution remain dependent on diesel for machinery and vehicles. The IEA also warns that higher fuel prices can increase the cost of goods and affect incomes and economic activity.
The forecast does not provide certainty about prices at Dutch filling stations. Those prices also depend on taxes, exchange rates, margins, the composition of fuels and conditions in the regional market. The report does say that prices in Europe, Africa and Latin America could rise again in the coming weeks if tensions in the oil tanker market persist.
The IEA also discusses possible emergency measures. Member states that have not yet fully released their previously promised strategic reserves could speed this up, according to the organisation, with priority given to diesel. Countries can also assess whether additional releases are needed. The matter will be discussed further on Thursday at a meeting of the IEA governing board.
The core of the forecast is that a temporary shortage will not disappear quickly once refineries begin producing more again. Stocks must first be rebuilt, and that process could last into the second half of 2027, according to the IEA.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The IEA expects diesel supply to fall short of demand in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- Global oil stocks have fallen sharply, according to the IEA.
- The IEA discusses releasing strategic reserves as a possible measure.
Left
Arguments The government should protect households and vulnerable sectors from fuel poverty and should not leave businesses to bear the full cost of an international crisis. This view emphasises targeted compensation and faster adoption of more efficient transport.
Values Affordability, social protection and the energy transition.
Consequences Support could limit economic damage, but could increase demand for diesel and the burden on the public finances.
Centre
Arguments Strategic reserves and temporary support can cushion shocks, but should be accompanied by transparent conditions and a plan to restore normal market functioning.
Values Continuity, efficiency and fiscal discipline.
Consequences A temporary intervention can buy time, while structural dependence on diesel remains.
Right
Arguments The government's first task is energy security: ensuring adequate supply, protecting strategic trade routes and giving businesses room to negotiate their own contracts and build up stocks.
Values Economic resilience, market forces and national security.
Consequences Greater domestic or regional production could reduce dependence, but requires investment and may conflict with climate goals.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The production, stock and price data are drawn from the current IEA report. The text presents the development through 2027 as a forecast and avoids an unsubstantiated prediction about Dutch pump prices.
- confirmed The IEA expects the diesel market to remain tight into 2027. — The October forecast says that replenishing lost stocks will probably not be possible before the second half of 2027. source
- confirmed Global diesel exports were 700,000 barrels per day lower in September than a year earlier. — Figure from the IEA report. source
- confirmed Observed global oil stocks stood 509 million barrels below the level before the wars at the end of September. — Figure from the IEA report. source
- confirmed Diesel prices in Europe and the United States reached around 220 dollars per barrel. — The IEA identifies this as the peak in wholesale prices in September. source
- confirmed The IEA discusses accelerating the release of strategic reserves. — The IEA calls on member states to accelerate remaining commitments and assess additional releases. source
Editor's note
The IEA provides the primary source and distinguishes between measurements and forecasts. No Dutch price forecast is available; possible effects on sectors have therefore been described as market effects, not as certain price rises.Sources
- Oil Market Report – October 2026 — International Energy Agency
- IEA statement on responding to the global diesel market situation — International Energy Agency
- Diesel shortages could persist well into 2027, IEA says — Reuters via MarketScreener