Heat killed more than 50,000 Europeans this summer
A new modelling study attributes almost two-thirds of the estimated deaths to human-caused warming.
Listen to this article
There is no audio version yet. Request one and an AI voice will read the article aloud.
Read by an AI voice.
Extreme heat in Europe is estimated to have killed 50,391 people in June, July and August. That is according to a new analysis by researchers from Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, whose results were seen by Associated Press.
The researchers modelled the effects of high temperatures in 854 European cities. This means it is not a record of individual deaths, but, according to the researchers, an estimate based on temperature data, population data and established links between heat and mortality.
Of the estimated deaths, 32,619 are thought to be linked to the additional warmth caused by human-induced climate change. That is around two-thirds of the total. The researchers write that the burning of coal, oil and gas in particular has driven temperatures higher.
According to the analysis, the summer of 2026 exceeds the previous estimate for 2022, when 29,480 heat-related deaths were calculated in the same urban dataset. The researchers stress that the comparison is limited to the 854 cities studied and that the heatwave in May was not included.
According to the researchers, around one-third of the estimated deaths occurred between 17 June and 1 July. During that period, temperatures were on average 5.3 degrees Celsius above normal, according to the researchers. In some cities, the difference was even greater, the analysis says.
Italy, France, Spain and Germany are among the countries with the highest estimated numbers, according to the researchers. This does not automatically mean that heat was recorded as the cause of death on death certificates: according to the researchers, most figures were derived from excess mortality and statistical models.
According to the researchers, the findings underline that adapting to heat is becoming more important alongside emissions policy. This includes warnings, protecting vulnerable people, cool places and measures in cities. On Thursday, the British Parliament referred to the same estimate in a call to improve preparations for heat.
The study has yet to appear in Nature Health. The full method, uncertainty margins and breakdowns by city are important when assessing the findings. The result is therefore a preliminary scientific estimate, not a definitive European mortality statistic.
Also show where in Europe and in the world
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- Researchers estimate that heat caused more than 50,000 deaths in 854 European cities in the summer of 2026.
- According to the same analysis, almost two-thirds were linked to human-caused warming.
- The study is based on statistical modelling and the full publication was not yet available at the time of writing.
Left
Arguments This perspective says the figures show that climate change is already causing direct harm to health. Faster emissions cuts, public investment in cooler homes and cities, and additional protection for vulnerable groups are therefore needed.
Values Collective responsibility, health protection and reducing inequality.
Consequences Without robust policy, older people, those with limited means and residents of hot cities will face greater risks; prevention requires public resources but prevents harm.
Centre
Arguments The estimate calls for a combination of emissions policy and practical adaptation. Governments can start with better warnings, heat plans and urban design while continuing to take scientific uncertainty margins into account.
Values Precaution, practicality and trust in institutions and research.
Consequences A phased approach can protect lives quickly without basing policy solely on a single preliminary model result.
Right
Arguments This perspective emphasises that governments should first improve their existing emergency services, building regulations and local facilities before imposing new broad obligations. Care must also be taken with expensive measures that could harm the economy or affordability.
Values Individual responsibility, efficiency, affordability and restrained government.
Consequences Targeted protection for vulnerable people and better crisis preparedness take priority; broad climate measures are judged mainly on cost, impact and measurable results.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The key figures and the restriction to 854 cities were confirmed by Associated Press and the British parliamentary committee. The text makes clear that these are model estimates and that the full study is not yet available.
- confirmed An estimated 50,391 people died from heat in June, July and August in 854 European cities. — The figure and research design are mentioned by Associated Press. source
- confirmed 32,619 deaths were attributed to additional warmth caused by human-induced climate change. — Associated Press reports this as a finding of the study. source
- confirmed The estimate for 2026 is higher than the 2022 estimate of 29,480 deaths. — The comparison appears in the AP report. source
- confirmed The study does not include the heatwave in May. — Associated Press reports that the researchers did not include May. source
- confirmed The British Parliament referred to the estimate of more than 50,000 deaths. — This appears in the Environmental Audit Committee’s publication. source
- confirmed The full study is yet to appear in Nature Health. — Associated Press mentions publication in an upcoming edition. source
Editor's note
It is certain that researchers have published or shared a model estimate of more than 50,000 heat-related deaths in 854 European cities. The full method, uncertainty margins and precise breakdown by country remain uncertain, because the complete study has reportedly yet to appear according to the available sources.Sources
- Europe's killer heat this summer claims 50,000 lives — Associated Press
- Committee Chair responds to “worst on record” excess deaths from Europe’s heatwave — UK Parliament
More on this in Dutch media
- de Volkskrant — „hitte klimaatverandering”
- NU.nl — „hitte klimaatverandering”
- De Telegraaf — „hitte klimaatverandering”