2026 likely to be second-warmest year on record
According to Copernicus, the global average this year will almost certainly be more than 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial era.
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2026 is likely to be the second-warmest year since records began. The European climate service Copernicus also says the year will almost certainly average more than 1.5 degrees warmer than in 1850–1900.
The forecast is based on temperature measurements from January to October and a statistical prediction for the remaining months. Copernicus still identifies 2024 as the warmest year in the ERA5 series used. According to the service, 2026 has about a 20 per cent chance of matching or exceeding that record.
October was the warmest October worldwide in the record. The average temperature that month was 0.85 degrees above the 1991–2020 average. This put October at 1.63 degrees above the estimated pre-industrial level. The two reference points measure different things: the first compares with a recent climatological period, while the second compares with conditions before large-scale industrial emissions.
For the first ten months of the year, 2026 ranks second in the table. Copernicus expects the full-year anomaly to be between 1.56 and 1.61 degrees above the pre-industrial average. This is a model-based forecast, not a definitive annual average; the final months could still affect the ranking.
The 1.5-degree threshold comes from the Paris Agreement, but exceeding it in a single calendar year does not automatically mean that the long-term target has formally been breached. That target is assessed over a longer period. However, the succession of exceptionally warm months makes clear that temporary exceedances are becoming more frequent.
The immediate consequences differ by region. Higher average temperatures increase the likelihood of heat, drought, wildfires and heavy rainfall, but Copernicus's monthly figures do not indicate what effect an individual Dutch summer or winter will have. The central point of the news is therefore not one new record, but further confirmation of a structurally warmer world.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- Copernicus expects 2026 to average more than 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level.
- The full-year ranking is still a forecast.
- 2024 remains the warmest year in the series used.
Left
Arguments From this perspective, the figures underline the need for rapid emissions cuts and public investment.
Values Climate justice, protection of vulnerable groups and collective responsibility.
Consequences Delay, this perspective holds, increases the damage and makes adaptation more expensive.
Centre
Arguments The measurements call for accelerated policy, but also for realistic plans for energy supply, industry and adaptation.
Values Scientific grounding, feasibility and institutional continuity.
Consequences A combination of emissions reductions and climate adaptation limits risks without relying exclusively on a single policy instrument.
Right
Arguments The rise in temperatures calls for technological innovation and adaptation, but policy must safeguard affordability and competitiveness.
Values Economic freedom, national sovereignty and protecting households from high costs.
Consequences From this perspective, rules introduced too quickly could make energy more expensive and drive industry to countries with less stringent regulations.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The key figures and the uncertainty over the final ranking correspond with Copernicus. The text distinguishes between measured anomalies and a forecast.
- confirmed 2026 is likely to be the second-warmest year on record — Copernicus calls this the most likely outcome based on data through October. source
- confirmed October 2026 was the warmest October in the record — Mentioned in Copernicus's monthly publication. source
- confirmed 2026 has about a 20 per cent chance of matching or exceeding 2024 — The probability estimate appears in the Copernicus forecast. source
- confirmed Exceeding 1.5 degrees in a single year is not the same as formally exceeding the long-term target — This follows from the distinction between annual temperature and long-term averages. source
Editor's note
Measurements through October are available; the full-year position remains a forecast. The long-term significance of 1.5 degrees should not be inferred from a single calendar year.Sources
- Copernicus: Warmest October on record with 2026 virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C — Copernicus Climate Change Service
- State of the climate: 2026 likely to tie with 2024 as the warmest year on record — Carbon Brief