WMO: 2026 to be one of the four warmest years
The global average temperature was 1.47 degrees above the pre-industrial level up to and including September.
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According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2026 will be one of the four warmest years since records began. The WMO published its provisional figures on Monday at the opening of the COP31 climate summit in Antalya.
The average temperature at the Earth’s surface from January to September was approximately 1.47 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average. The WMO stresses that this is a provisional figure: the data do not run through to the end of the year everywhere.
According to the organisation, the past twelve years, from 2015 through 2026, will be the twelve warmest years ever recorded. The four years from 2023 through 2026 top the rankings. This does not mean that every individual weather record is caused by climate change, but it does mean that background temperatures remain exceptionally high.
An important factor in 2026 is El Niño, which the WMO says has strengthened since August. The natural phenomenon moves heat from the ocean into the atmosphere and generally increases the likelihood of heat, drought and heavy rainfall. The organisation expects El Niño to remain influential into 2027.
Other climate indicators are also high. The global average sea level reached a record in 2026 in the satellite series that began in 1993. Preliminary data up to July point to a new record for ocean heat content; those data are not yet final.
Earlier this month, the European climate service Copernicus reported that 2026 will almost certainly be the second calendar year with an annual average above 1.5 degrees compared with the pre-industrial period. This is not a direct threshold at which the climate suddenly changes: the 1.5-degree target concerns a long-term average. The new WMO figures do underline why governments at COP31 are discussing emissions, adaptation and warnings for extreme weather.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The WMO reports exceptionally high global temperatures and record-high sea levels and ocean heat.
- El Niño temporarily increases the likelihood of additional warmth and extreme weather.
- COP31 is discussing climate policy and the implementation of existing pledges.
Left
Arguments The figures show that rapid reductions in fossil-fuel emissions and more support for vulnerable countries are necessary; delay increases damage and inequality.
Values Climate justice, public protection and international solidarity.
Consequences Greater investment in clean energy and adaptation may entail costs in the short term, but from this perspective it limits future damage.
Centre
Arguments The measurements call for policies that reduce emissions while also taking account of affordability, security of supply and feasibility. The WMO figures are a basis for policy, not a complete policy plan.
Values Scientific grounding, gradualism and administrative feasibility.
Consequences A combination of emissions reductions, warnings and climate adaptation can limit risks without presenting one measure as a solution to everything.
Right
Arguments The temperature data must be taken seriously, but from this perspective climate policy should remain proportionate and weigh economic damage, energy prices and national competitiveness.
Values Affordability, energy security and national responsibility.
Consequences Measures taken too quickly can burden households and businesses; technological innovation and adaptation therefore receive priority alongside, or sometimes above, stricter regulation.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The temperature figures and climate indicators come from the WMO publication and the Copernicus announcement. The text explicitly states which data are provisional and distinguishes between an annual average and the long-term 1.5-degree target.
- confirmed 2026 will be one of the four warmest years ever recorded. — The WMO names 2026 as one of the four warmest years on record. source
- confirmed The average temperature from January through September was approximately 1.47 degrees above 1850–1900. — This figure appears in the WMO update. source
- confirmed 2015 through 2026 constitute the twelve warmest consecutive years. — The WMO describes this period as the warmest twelve years in the series. source
- confirmed Sea levels reached a record in 2026 in the satellite series since 1993. — The WMO mentions the record and the starting year of the satellite series. source
- confirmed Copernicus expects it to be almost certain that 2026 will exceed 1.5 degrees. — Copernicus speaks of an almost certain exceedance based on ERA5 data up to October. source
Editor's note
The WMO publication is a provisional interim assessment with data up to and including September, and for some indicators up to July. El Niño’s influence explains the temporary additional warmth; it is not the cause of long-term warming.Sources
- State of the Climate Update for COP31 — World Meteorological Organization
- State of the climate in 2026 gives new meaning to phrase “off the charts” — World Meteorological Organization
- Copernicus: Warmest October on record with 2026 virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C — Copernicus Climate Change Service
- 2026 schiet vrijwel zeker door 1,5 graad opwarming na recordwarme oktober — NOS
More on this in Dutch media
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