Global emissions fall slightly because of war, not policy
A new estimate projects a small fall in fossil CO₂ emissions in 2026, mainly because of the energy shock surrounding Iran.
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Global fossil-fuel emissions are expected to fall by 0.4 per cent this year. According to the researchers, this is mainly because of the war around Iran and disruption to oil and gas supplies, not a rapid switch to clean energy.
The estimate appears in the new Global Carbon Budget 2026, a preprint published on Tuesday that is still being peer-reviewed. The researchers estimate fossil CO₂ emissions at 42.2 billion tonnes in 2026. That figure covers emissions from coal, oil and gas; emissions from changes in land use, such as deforestation, are excluded.
The fall does not apply to all fuels. According to the analysis described by Associated Press, oil emissions are falling by almost 2 per cent and natural-gas emissions by 0.3 per cent. Coal emissions, by contrast, are rising by 0.6 per cent. The researchers link this to higher oil and gas prices after the war severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
As a result, some countries and electricity producers are switching to coal. The International Energy Agency had already expected global coal demand to rise by 1.2 per cent in 2026, reaching a record 8.94 billion tonnes. That estimate dates from September and is therefore not the same as the emissions estimate published on Tuesday, but it does show why a fall in total fossil-fuel emissions does not automatically mean that coal is losing ground.
The new carbon estimate is also provisional. The researchers base the final part of the year on estimates and give an uncertainty range of minus 1.5 to plus 0.6 per cent for the change in fossil-fuel emissions. The publication is a preprint and has not yet undergone definitive peer review. The researchers also say that total human CO₂ emissions are likely to rise by about 1 per cent when land use is included.
The provisional fall is not in itself evidence of structural progress in climate policy. A war that makes fuels more expensive may temporarily reduce oil use while increasing coal consumption, with emissions potentially rising again once trade routes recover. The authors report that atmospheric CO₂ concentration is expected to rise to 427.7 ppm in 2026, 54 per cent above the estimated pre-industrial level of about 278 ppm.
For the Netherlands, this raises the question of how energy security and climate policy can work together. Reduced oil supplies may affect prices and fuel availability, while additional coal use could partly cancel out the climate gains from clean energy. The central question behind the figure is therefore not only whether emissions fall this year, but whether that fall can persist without war, trade blockades or economic contraction as the cause.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The Global Carbon Budget 2026 estimates a small fall in fossil CO₂ emissions in 2026.
- The publication is a preprint and has not yet been peer-reviewed.
- The fall differs by fuel: oil and gas fall according to the reported breakdown, while coal rises.
- The study links the development to the energy shock surrounding the war and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.
Left
Arguments The figures show that climate policy must not depend on war, scarcity or high prices. Governments should invest more quickly in renewable energy, insulation and public infrastructure, so that emissions fall structurally and households are less vulnerable to fossil-fuel shocks.
Values Collective responsibility, climate protection and protecting vulnerable households.
Consequences Greater public investment and stricter rules may cost money in the short term, but this approach says they reduce dependence on oil, gas and coal.
Centre
Arguments The figures call for a combination of climate policy and security of supply. A stable and affordable energy supply remain prerequisites, while the uncertainty of the preprint is reason to be cautious about drawing major conclusions.
Values Reliability, affordability and workable policy.
Consequences A gradual mix of clean energy, energy saving and temporary measures to cushion price shocks would then be the logical course.
Right
Arguments From this perspective, rising coal demand shows that a rapid phase-out without sufficient affordable alternatives can undermine energy security. Countries must retain room for economic growth, national energy sources and technologies that limit emissions without relocating production.
Values Energy security, affordability, national autonomy and economic continuity.
Consequences An overly abrupt ban on fossil energy could lead to higher prices, industrial damage and greater dependence on unstable foreign suppliers.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The key figures and the status of the new publication were checked against the preprint and independent AP reporting. The context on coal demand comes from an older IEA estimate and is dated as context in the article.
- confirmed The Global Carbon Budget 2026 was published as a preprint on 10 November 2026 and is still under review. — Stated on the publication page of Earth System Science Data Discussions. source
- confirmed Fossil CO₂ emissions are provisionally falling by 0.4 per cent in 2026. — The preprint gives a provisional fall of 0.40 per cent; AP reports the same estimate. source
- confirmed Estimated fossil-fuel emissions amount to 42.2 billion tonnes of CO₂. — AP summarises the Global Carbon Project's estimate. source
- confirmed Oil emissions are falling by almost 2 per cent, gas emissions by 0.3 per cent and coal emissions are rising by 0.6 per cent. — This breakdown appears in AP reporting on the study. source
- confirmed The IEA expected global coal demand to rise by 1.2 per cent to 8.94 billion tonnes in 2026. — Stated in the IEA Coal Mid-Year Update 2026; this is an estimate from September. source
- confirmed Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is expected to rise to 427.7 ppm, 54 per cent above the pre-industrial level. — The Global Carbon Budget preprint gives both figures. source
Editor's note
The new study was published as a preprint on 10 November and is still under review. The precise fuel breakdown comes from AP reporting; the IEA coal-demand estimate is older and serves only as context.Sources
- Global Carbon Budget 2026 — Earth System Science Data Discussions
- Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress — Associated Press
- Global coal demand set to increase this year amid Middle East conflict — International Energy Agency
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