DNB sees energy transition as economic shock absorber
President Olaf Sleijpen warns at climate summit about climate risks and fluctuating fossil-fuel prices.
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De Nederlandsche Bank wants governments and businesses to see the energy transition not only as climate policy, but also as protection against economic shocks. DNB president Olaf Sleijpen said on Thursday at the COP31 climate summit that dependence on fossil fuels can affect inflation, production costs and financial stability.
Sleijpen delivered his speech in Antalya, where the 31st United Nations climate conference is taking place. He linked the shift towards an energy system using fewer fossil fuels to two risks: the economic consequences of climate change and fluctuations in international energy markets.
According to Sleijpen, climate risk is no longer only a problem for the future. Banks, insurers and businesses are already facing the consequences of heat, flooding, drought and other extreme weather events. In the speech, DNB refers to estimates by reinsurers stating that direct global damage from extreme weather averaged 384 billion dollars a year over the past five years, more than twice as much as at the start of this century.
The central bank president says that the energy transition does not necessarily slow economic growth. According to the figures he cited, clean-energy investment accounted for almost one-third of GDP growth in the European Union in 2023 and approximately 10 per cent of global GDP growth. These are shares of growth, not GDP growth rates themselves.
At the same time, Sleijpen stressed that the transition entails costs. Governments cannot bear these alone, while their budgets are already under pressure. He therefore called for credible and stable long-term policy, with temporary and targeted support where necessary for households and businesses hardest hit.
DNB's economic reasoning is that more renewable energy can reduce dependence on oil, gas and coal. This would make importing economies less vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions and price spikes. Sleijpen did point out that the sustainable economy also creates new dependencies, for example on batteries and raw materials.
The speech is not a new interest-rate decision, budget proposal or binding measure. It is a policy warning from the central bank. The question behind the news is therefore mainly how quickly investment, networks and regulations can be adapted without placing a disproportionate share of the costs on households and businesses.
Also show where in Europe and in the world
Both sides of the figures
▲ Bright spots
- DNB says that clean-energy investment represented almost one-third of GDP growth in the EU and approximately 10 per cent globally in 2023.
- According to DNB, less dependence on fossil-fuel imports can make economies less vulnerable to price spikes and geopolitical disruptions.
▼ Concerns
- DNB says that the energy transition entails costs while government budgets are already under pressure.
- The speech warns of new dependencies on batteries and raw materials.
Critical note
The figures cited concern contributions to growth and damage from extreme weather, not total prosperity or the distribution of transition costs. The speech contains no new Dutch figures on a per-capita basis, purchasing power or employment.
Who notices what
- Households
- They may become less exposed to fossil-fuel price shocks in the longer term, but according to DNB may face transition costs and targeted support schemes.
- Businesses
- Stable long-term policy can facilitate investment, while higher energy and adaptation costs weigh in the short term.
- Investors
- According to DNB, climate risks can affect assets, credit risk and insurance.
- Government
- The government must accelerate infrastructure and policy, but cannot bear the full cost of the transition alone.
Every point comes from the article’s sources and was included in the fact check.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- DNB president Olaf Sleijpen spoke about economic resilience at COP31 on 12 November.
- DNB links climate risks and dependence on fossil energy to inflation, production costs and financial stability.
- The speech refers to the costs of the energy transition and new dependencies on, among other things, batteries and raw materials.
- The figures cited were mentioned by Sleijpen in his speech and are not a new Dutch growth figure.
Left
Arguments The government must invest more quickly in clean energy, networks and protection for vulnerable households, because climate and energy-price shocks have particularly unequal effects.
Values Collective protection, climate responsibility and the distribution of burdens.
Consequences Faster policy can limit risks and emissions, but requires higher public investment and clear choices about who pays.
Centre
Arguments Stable policy, market incentives and targeted temporary support can make the transition feasible without placing unlimited strain on public finances.
Values Financial stability, predictability and efficiency.
Consequences A gradual approach can support investment and public backing, but may be too slow if risks escalate more quickly.
Right
Arguments The energy transition must remain affordable and technologically neutral. Less dependence on fossil-fuel imports is useful, but businesses and households must not be burdened with unworkable rules and costs.
Values Affordability, competitiveness and individual freedom of choice.
Consequences More scope for different technologies can limit costs, but may slow emissions reductions and investment certainty.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The speech, date, speaker and figures cited were checked directly against DNB's publication. The article clearly distinguishes between figures from the speech and new economic statistics.
- confirmed Olaf Sleijpen delivered a speech at COP31 in Antalya on 12 November. — DNB gives the location, date and occasion on the publication page. source
- confirmed Direct global damage from extreme weather averaged 384 billion dollars a year over the past five years. — This figure appears in the DNB speech as an estimate by private reinsurers. source
- confirmed Clean-energy investment accounted for almost one-third of GDP growth in the EU and approximately 10 per cent globally in 2023. — DNB explicitly gives these shares, and the article correctly states that they refer to shares of growth. source
- confirmed Sleijpen warned that the energy transition entails costs and creates new dependencies. — Both points appear in the concluding sections of the speech. source
Editor's note
The core of the article is the speech by DNB president Olaf Sleijpen on 12 November. The economic figures cited were mentioned by DNB in the speech; they are not new Dutch growth estimates.Sources
- The energy transition: building resilience in an age of shocks — De Nederlandsche Bank
- Why electrification is at the heart of COP31 talks — Le Monde
More on this in Dutch media
- Trouw — „dnb energietransitie”
- RTL Nieuws — „dnb energietransitie”
- FD — „dnb energietransitie”