IEA sees oil-market surplus again for first time
Recovery in Gulf exports pushes down oil prices, but diesel remains far more expensive than before the war.
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Global oil supply exceeded demand in October for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran, the International Energy Agency reports. The market is cautiously easing as exports from the Gulf recover faster than oil demand.
According to the IEA’s monthly report, global supply rose by 2.3 million barrels per day in October to 105.4 million barrels per day. Supply had already increased by 3 million barrels per day in September. Higher exports from the Gulf offset part of the disruptions caused by attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers.
Demand remains weak. The IEA expects global oil demand to fall by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2026 to 102.3 million barrels per day. A year-on-year decline of 2.7 million barrels per day is expected in the fourth quarter, less severe than the average fall of 4.4 million barrels per day in the second and third quarters.
The price movement is visible, but the market has not returned to its previous level. According to the IEA, the price of North Sea Dated crude oil fell by 32 per cent from a peak of 136 dollars per barrel in early October to about 93 dollars at the time of the report. That is still 22 dollars above the pre-war level.
Inventories also present a mixed picture. Globally measured oil stocks increased by 52 million barrels in October, or 1.7 million barrels per day. Onshore stocks, however, continued to fall and, according to the IEA, are at their lowest level since at least 2016. OECD stocks fell by 47 million barrels in the same month.
Cheaper crude oil could provide relief for households and businesses, but this will not immediately feed through into all fuel prices. Diesel in particular remains a problem, according to the IEA: the European diesel price has fallen by 11 per cent since the beginning of October, but was still 77 per cent above the pre-war level in the report. The organisation also warns that attacks on shipping could disrupt the recovery again.
Also show the region and a close-up
Both sides of the figures
▲ Bright spots
- Oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels per day in October to 105.4 million barrels per day, leaving the market with a surplus for the first time since the outbreak of the war.
- According to the IEA, the price of North Sea Dated fell from 136 to about 93 dollars per barrel.
- Global inventories increased by 52 million barrels in October.
▼ Concerns
- According to the IEA, onshore oil inventories are at their lowest level since at least 2016.
- European diesel was still 77 per cent more expensive than before the war in the report.
- The IEA warns that attacks on shipping could disrupt the recovery.
Critical note
The surplus does not mean a full return to normal: demand is falling, onshore inventories remain low and diesel prices are still well above their previous level. The figures are a monthly snapshot and the IEA explicitly describes the recovery as provisional.
Who notices what
- Households
- A lower oil price could eventually push down fuel prices, but diesel remains exceptionally expensive according to the IEA.
- Businesses
- Transport and manufacturing companies may benefit from lower crude-oil prices, while high diesel costs continue to weigh on them.
- Investors
- Lower oil prices could hurt oil producers, but may provide relief for refineries and energy-intensive companies.
- Government
- The government is taking continuing risks to energy security and shipping into account.
Every point comes from the article’s sources and was included in the fact check.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The figures and periods cited were checked directly against the IEA report of 13 November 2026. The text distinguishes between crude oil, diesel, supply, demand and inventories, and does not present the market recovery as definitive.
- confirmed Global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels per day in October to 105.4 million barrels per day. — IEA Oil Market Report, highlights. source
- confirmed Oil demand will fall by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2026 to 102.3 million barrels per day. — IEA Oil Market Report, highlight on demand. source
- confirmed North Sea Dated fell by 32 per cent from 136 dollars to about 93 dollars per barrel. — The IEA describes the same movement in the report. source
- confirmed The European diesel price was 77 per cent above the pre-war level. — IEA Oil Market Report, passage on diesel prices. source
Editor's note
The supply, demand, inventory and price data come from the IEA report of 13 November. The IEA describes the recovery as cautious and itself points to continuing risks for diesel and shipping.Sources
- Oil Market Report - November 2026 — International Energy Agency
- Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration
- How the Iran war is changing the renewables landscape — Axios
More on this in Dutch media
- NU.nl — „olie iea”
- De Telegraaf — „olie iea”
- Trouw — „olie iea”