Super El Niño makes record a real possibility
US climate models put the odds of an exceptionally strong El Niño in autumn at high levels.
The strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific could develop into one of the strongest events since modern records began. NOAA estimates a 75 per cent chance of a historically strong El Niño between October and December.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon in which seawater in parts of the equatorial Pacific becomes warmer than average. That warming affects air currents and rainfall patterns far beyond the Pacific. The effects vary by region and cannot be attributed to every individual event or disaster.
According to the US Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, temperature anomalies in September in the eastern equatorial Pacific were greater than 3 degrees. The Niño-3.4 index stood at 1.8 degrees above average in August. NOAA expects a more than 90 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño in autumn and winter 2026-2027.
For October-December, NOAA gives a 75 per cent chance of an event becoming stronger than earlier El Niños in the record dating back to 1950. That is a model estimate, not an established record. The forecast may change as new measurements and calculations become available.
An analysis reported by The Guardian said that another measurement method had already exceeded the previous maximum from 2015 in September. The analysis was based on NOAA data and calculations by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather. Because different indices use different reference periods, such record comparisons are not directly interchangeable.
The possible consequences are significant. The Associated Press reported that scientists in Asia are taking drought, disruption to agriculture and increased risks to food security into account. Elsewhere, El Niño may instead bring more rain, flooding or altered storm activity. Which effects occur depends on the location and strength of the phenomenon and on regional conditions.
Warming caused by greenhouse gases and El Niño are separate processes, but they can temporarily reinforce each other in global average temperatures. That makes the coming months relevant to governments, agriculture and water management. It is still too early to attribute local Dutch effects for the coming winter with certainty to this one phenomenon.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- NOAA says El Niño is strengthening.
- There is a high chance of a very strong event in autumn and winter.
- Regional effects vary and remain partly uncertain.
Left
Arguments The combination of a strong El Niño and human-caused warming shows that governments must invest more quickly in emissions reductions, climate adaptation and protecting vulnerable communities.
Values Climate justice, prevention and public responsibility.
Consequences Greater investment could limit damage, but would require higher public spending and stricter rules for polluting sectors.
Centre
Arguments El Niño is a natural phenomenon, but its effects can be limited through better forecasts, water management, food reserves and regional disaster plans.
Values Pragmatism, risk management and policy based on measured data.
Consequences Targeted preparation is more affordable and easier to implement than policies that link every local event to a single cause.
Right
Arguments Governments must adapt to extreme conditions without burdening the economy with broad climate measures. Technological innovation and resilient agriculture should be prioritised.
Values Economic freedom, national resilience and efficiency.
Consequences A focus on adaptation can deliver quick results, but without emissions reductions, structural warming risks will remain.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The measurements and probabilities were checked against NOAA's September 2026 discussion. The consequences for Asia and the uncertainty surrounding regional effects were separately assessed against reporting by AP and The Guardian.
- confirmed NOAA gives a 75 per cent chance of a historically strong El Niño in October-December 2026. — This is stated in the official ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026. source
- confirmed NOAA expects a more than 90 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño in autumn and winter 2026-2027. — Summary of the same official forecast. source
- confirmed Temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific were greater than 3 degrees. — NOAA mentions these anomalies in its current diagnosis. source
- confirmed Scientists are warning of drought and risks to food security in parts of Asia. — Described in an AP report on the expected consequences. source
Editor's note
The observed temperature anomalies are measurements; the probabilities of a historically strong event are model outputs. Regional effects remain uncertain and cannot be inferred directly from the global forecast.Sources
- ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — NOAA Climate Prediction Center
- Worsening El Nino threatens Asia with drought — Associated Press
- Jaw-dropping El Niño bursts through temperature record — The Guardian
More on this in Dutch media
- NOS — „el niño”
- Het Parool — „el niño”
- de Volkskrant — „el niño”