Atlantic hurricane season remains exceptionally quiet
El Niño and cooler sea water make conditions less favourable for severe storms.
The Atlantic hurricane season has remained notably quiet around its usual peak. That is no proof that the rest of the season will pass without severe storms, but according to publicly available meteorological sources, the start is exceptionally late and activity is low.
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season falls climatologically around 10 September. According to reporting by Associated Press, no Atlantic storms had reached hurricane strength by 12 September. This meant that 2026 was exceptionally late at least up to that point compared with the usual seasonal development.
For the period 1991–2020, the National Hurricane Center uses an average of approximately fourteen named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. These are averages over a long series of years, not a forecast for any individual season.
The US NOAA expected a relatively quiet season in 2026. Its outlook envisaged seven to thirteen named storms, of which two to six could become hurricanes. No more than two were expected to reach Category 3 or higher. A seasonal forecast describes probabilities; it does not predict where or when a storm will make landfall.
The KNMI points in particular to the expected influence of El Niño. This condition can strengthen winds at high altitude and suppress rising air in the atmosphere. As a result, conditions for the formation and strengthening of hurricanes become less favourable on average.
Sea temperature also plays a role. In June, the KNMI wrote that water in the main development area for 2026 was almost two degrees Celsius cooler than in 2024. According to the institute, water at about 27 degrees in the upper fifty metres is an important ingredient in hurricane formation.
Quiet does not mean risk-free. A single system could still strengthen rapidly later in the season and have major consequences. Moreover, a quiet Atlantic season says little about tropical storms in other oceans. The current assessment therefore concerns the low activity so far; the explanation and the remainder of the season are partly based on forecasts.
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The meteorological explanation is based on NOAA, NHC and KNMI sources. The current situation is worded cautiously because publicly available sources do not all use the same reference date.
- confirmed The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season falls around 10 September. — Mentioned by the National Hurricane Center. source
- confirmed By 12 September 2026, no Atlantic storm had reached hurricane strength. — Reported by Associated Press. source
- confirmed The long-term average is approximately fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. — The NHC uses these averages for 1991–2020. source
- confirmed NOAA expected seven to thirteen named storms and two to six hurricanes for 2026. — Stated in the NOAA seasonal forecast. source
- confirmed El Niño can hinder the formation of Atlantic hurricanes. — Meteorological explanation by the KNMI. source
- confirmed The remainder of the season remains uncertain. — Seasonal forecasts describe probabilities, not exact storm tracks or landfalls. source
Editor's note
The low activity, climatological peak and seasonal forecast are supported. The precise current situation after 12 September is not fully set out in all the publicly available sources consulted.Sources
- Tropical Cyclone Climatology — National Hurricane Center
- Atlantic Hurricane Outlook — NOAA Climate Prediction Center
- El Niño zorgt waarschijnlijk voor rustiger orkaanseizoen — KNMI
- Where have all the Atlantic hurricanes gone? — Associated Press
More on this in Dutch media
- NOS — „orkanen atlantische oceaan”
- Het Parool — „orkanen atlantische oceaan”
- de Volkskrant — „orkanen atlantische oceaan”