El Niño heads towards exceptionally strong phase
Meteorological services expect a very strong El Niño, but a record is not yet a certainty.
El Niño is already firmly established, according to the World Meteorological Organization, and will probably strengthen further in the coming months. Forecasts point to heightened risks of unusual rainfall, drought and extreme heat into 2027.
The WMO estimates the chance of El Niño lasting until February 2027 at almost 100 per cent. The organisation bases this on a joint assessment by international meteorological services and climate models.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported on 10 September that there is more than a 90 per cent chance of a very strong event in the autumn and winter of 2026–27. For October to December, the chance of a historically strong El Niño was estimated at 75 per cent.
The measurements underpinning that forecast are already exceptional. According to NOAA, sea temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean were more than 3 degrees above average. In the Niño 3.4 region, the anomaly was 1.8 degrees.
An experimental model from the US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory issues a similar warning. All thirty model runs point to an event that could rank among the strongest in the historical record or exceed it. That remains a model result, not an observed final outcome.
El Niño changes global patterns of temperature and rainfall. The effects vary by region and are not fully predictable. A greater chance of a particular type of weather therefore does not mean that every forecast flood, drought or heatwave is caused by El Niño.
For policymakers, the emphasis for now is on preparation and early warning. The WMO stresses that the forecast mainly describes risks. How strong the event ultimately becomes and how long its effects persist will become clearer in the coming months.
Fact-check Approved · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The text distinguishes between observations, model results and probabilities. The record claim is carefully described as a forecast rather than a proven event.
- confirmed The WMO estimates the chance of El Niño lasting until February 2027 at almost 100 per cent. — This is stated in the WMO release of 3 September 2026. source
- confirmed NOAA estimates the chance of a very strong El Niño in autumn and winter at more than 90 per cent. — Mentioned in the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026. source
- confirmed The Niño 3.4 anomaly was 1.8 degrees. — The figure appears in the NOAA discussion. source
- confirmed All thirty GFDL model runs point to a historically strong event. — GFDL describes this for the experimental September forecast. source
Editor's note
The measurements and probabilities have been confirmed by the WMO and NOAA. The possible record strength remains a model-based forecast and is not presented as an established fact.Sources
- El Niño set to become very strong — World Meteorological Organization
- ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 10 September 2026 — NOAA Climate Prediction Center
- September 2026 El Niño Predictions — NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
More on this in Dutch media
- Trouw — „el niño”
- RTL Nieuws — „el niño”
- FD — „el niño”