El Niño set to be exceptionally strong, but record not certain
International meteorological services see a high likelihood of a very strong event and warn of changing weather patterns.
El Niño is growing stronger and could develop in the coming months into one of the most severe events since reliable measurements began. That means greater risks of unusual temperatures and rainfall, but it is not yet certain that this will be the strongest El Niño ever.
The World Meteorological Organization reported in early September that there is a high likelihood of El Niño lasting until February 2027. For autumn and winter, the organisation expects a strong classic response in the atmosphere, with above-average temperatures over land and changing rainfall patterns in various parts of the world.
El Niño occurs when surface water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean is warmer than average. This warming affects the jet streams and the distribution of rain and drought. The effects vary by region: some areas face a greater risk of flooding, while others face drought and heat.
In its latest diagnostic, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated the probability of a very strong event at more than 90 per cent. Earlier NOAA forecasts also gave a considerable chance of a historically strong level in the final quarter of 2026, but such forecasts remain dependent on measurements and model calculations.
The claim that El Niño is officially the most severe ever therefore runs ahead of the measurements. A record can only be established afterwards, based on the index used, the measurement period and the comparison chosen. Different indices can also lead to a different assessment of the precise strength.
The WMO is not warning of one type of weather that will be the same everywhere in the world. It concerns a greater likelihood of certain patterns. Regional conditions, including soil moisture, ocean temperatures outside the Pacific and existing drought, also determine how severe the actual effects will be.
For agriculture, water management and energy companies, predictability is particularly important. Governments and sectors can prepare for scenarios involving drought, flooding, heat and disruption to harvests, but a seasonal forecast does not say which specific place will be hit by a disaster. The coming measurements will show how exceptional this El Niño ultimately becomes.
One story, several perspectives
What is established
- The WMO and NOAA expect a very strong El Niño.
- El Niño affects the global likelihood of unusual temperature and rainfall patterns.
- A seasonal forecast does not predict a specific disaster in a specific place.
Left
Arguments A stronger El Niño shows that governments should invest preventively in climate adaptation, water management and protecting vulnerable groups. The costs of preparation are likely to be lower than those of recurring damage.
Values Solidarity, public protection and precaution.
Consequences Greater public investment could limit damage, but would require long-term spending and stricter choices about land and water.
Centre
Arguments Meteorological forecasts should be translated into regional scenarios without pretending to offer certainty. Governments should link measures to measurable thresholds and work with agriculture, water managers and safety regions.
Values Scientific rigour, proportionality and administrative feasibility.
Consequences A scenario-based approach prevents both panic and delay, but may be less visible than a major nationwide measure.
Right
Arguments Preparation is sensible, but policy should not automatically seize on every weather model as grounds for new bans or burdens. Sectors and households should retain room to adapt in a cost-efficient way.
Values Individual responsibility, affordability and economic continuity.
Consequences A more restrained government can limit costs, but risks greater damage if risks materialise more quickly.
The perspectives describe how these political currents typically approach the subject; the newsroom takes no position on which perspective is right.
Fact-check Approved with corrections · Nour Haddad — AI agent
This check was carried out by AI: every claim was re-tested against the sources. Even an approved article can contain errors — stay critical.
The original record claim was not adopted because the sources consulted refer to a possible very strong event and forecasts. The remaining statements can be traced back to WMO and NOAA information.
- confirmed There is a high likelihood of El Niño lasting until February 2027. — The WMO describes the probability as exceptionally high. source
- confirmed NOAA estimates the probability of a very strong event at more than 90 per cent. — This is stated in NOAA's ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. source
- confirmed It is not yet certain that this El Niño will be the strongest ever. — The sources consulted provide forecasts and probabilities, not a definitive record measurement. source
- confirmed The regional effects of El Niño vary from one area to another. — The WMO describes differing temperature and rainfall patterns by region. source
1 correction(s) applied
- Was: El Niño is now officially the most severe ever.Now: El Niño is set to be exceptionally strong, but the record is not yet certain. (The WMO and NOAA provide forecasts and probabilities; a definitive record can only be established after the measurements.)
Editor's note
The strong development and the high likelihood of a very strong El Niño have been confirmed by the WMO and NOAA. The claim that the event is already the strongest ever has not been confirmed and has been toned down in the headline and text.Sources
- El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027 — World Meteorological Organization
- ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — NOAA Climate Prediction Center
- Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities — NOAA Climate Prediction Center
More on this in Dutch media
- De Telegraaf — „el niño”
- Trouw — „el niño”
- RTL Nieuws — „el niño”